Wednesday, February 13, 2008

It was just about a year following the battle of Najaf that I found myself at a U.S. base on the outskirts of that town. It was the week of Iraq's constitutional referendum, and while the nation was falling into chaos elsewhere, U.S. military officials were feeling optimistic about this holy Shi'ite city. Having ceded control of security within the city limits to local leaders, violence was down.

"This will be the model for the rest of Iraq," one colonel told me.

I asked him about Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, whose Mehdi Army members had battled Marines in Najaf in August of 2004 and who now seemed to have consolidated his control of the city, even though he was still technically wanted, dead or alive, by the U.S. government.

"Sadr is just a punk," the colonel said in a bored southern drawl. "He's a gangster, not a political leader."

In the intervening years, Sadr has proved to be quite more than a punk. It was his militias that were responsible for much of the bloodshed that followed the February 2006 bombing of Samarra's Golden Mosque. And while U.S. leaders prefer to focus on the so-called "surge" as the reason for reduced violence in Iraq over the past few months, it's hard to ignore that the biggest gains in security just happen to have coincided with Sadr's August 2007 demand for a six-month cease-fire among his supporters.

Now that cease fire is about to end. And it should be disconcerting to anyone who cares about Iraq's future that U.S. leaders are once again treating Sadr like a small-time punk.

Last week, U.S. State Department Iraq coordinator David Satterfied told foreign policy gurus at the Middle East Institute that Sadr was little more than a "deeply troubled young man" who is now "beyond his ability to influence" matters in Iraq.

In the Time Magazine article reporting the remarks, Vali Nasr, author of The Shi'a Revival, sharply disagreed with Satterfield's assessment. "Moqtada al-Sadr still commands the largest social and political movement in southern Iraq," Nasr said. "The game in Iraq is not over. . . He has been beefing up his strength."

With Iraq teetering precariously on the edge of war and peace, now is not a time to be underestimating a man who could push it into oblivion.

From The Oct. 15, 2005 edition of The Salt Lake Tribune. . .

Hands off: U.S. soldiers plan to stay away from polls as Iraqis vote
By Matthew D. LaPlante
The Salt Lake Tribune
NAJAF, Iraq - As in much of Iraq today, American military officials in Najaf were trying to keep their troops as far from the polls as possible. They hope that, when the people of Iraq vote on their proposed new constitutional referendum, they will see themselves, not their occupiers, in charge.
"Our guys are going to stay completely away from that," said Col. Charlie Thornton, deputy commander for the 155th Brigade Combat Team, which oversees logistical operations in the southwestern provinces of Najaf and Karbala. "We don't want a hint of any kind of influence in this election."
Even in the relatively peaceful city of Najaf, that may be easier said than done. Allowing Iraqi police and military forces to handle security means accepting that a certain level of disorder may prevail.
To that end, U.S. military ears on Friday were waiting to hear the voice of Muqtada al-Sadr, whose Mahdi Militia continues its struggle for power in the city of Najaf, some 14 months after U.S. troops killed hundreds of Mahdi fighters in a failed uprising.
Today, Sadr is a tenuous ally in the goal of passing the constitution, having expressed numerous complaints about the document but refusing, through Friday, to call for an all-out "no" vote. His Mahdi army has even offered to "protect" voting centers in and around Baghdad, and is expected to be out in force in Najaf as well.
But although Shiite support for the document has never been fully in question, officials say Sadr could play a spoiler role, were his army to clash with rival Shiite groups -- as happens occasionally here -- necessitating an American response.
Thornton, though, was optimistic as he left his office at nearby Camp Duke on Friday evening.
"If they were going to do anything, I think they would have started today," he said.
As such, the plan is to keep most American forces three tiers back -- local police and elections officials will handle areas closest to polling sites while Iraqi military units will patrol the city. U.S. forces will stay outside of Najaf's perimeter, with the exception of a small unit that can help facilitate a rapid military response in a crisis. And that, said the 106th Support Battalion operations officer, Maj. Jeff Files, will only happen "if it gets really, really bad."
Not every area of the country will be able to ensure that Iraqi voters, if they choose to head to the polls, will predominantly see Iraqi faces. The buildup of Iraqi military and police forces in some areas -- especially in the volatile, Sunni-dominated Al Anbar, Ninewa, and Salah-al-din provinces, in northwest Iraq -- have simply not progressed fast enough to make that overall goal a reality. It remains to be seen whether a deal brokered by the National Assembly with Sunni leaders Wednesday night, allowing a new parliament to adopt amendments in the constitution should it pass, will bring Sunnis to the voting booths in any of those places.
Though Iraq's largest Sunni party has now endorsed the document (its headquarters in Baghdad was bombed on Friday, presumably in retaliation for that stand) it can be scuttled if two-thirds of voters in three provinces vote no.
In other parts of Iraq, however, the fight is not to pass the document but to do so with the appearance that its passage is victory for Iraq -- not the United States. To that end, Iraqi soldiers in Najaf on Friday wore buttons calling the constitution "the unity and hope for Iraq -- one country, one future."
And Files is optimistic. "This is a process of the people, they are casting a vote, and just the participation in the process is a good thing," he said. "This should be a really good day for them."

Labels: Iraq