Jazz in seven
Maybe it's because I watched the Warriors lose all four games they played against the Lakers this season, but you can put me squarely in the camp of those who believe the Jazz are going to win this Western Conference semifinals series.
There's just something gimmicky about a team that puts four guards on the floor, shoots 30 three-pointers a game, concedes the rebounding game (-5.01 during the regular season) and plays defense as if it's a 24-second break from offense.
Maybe the Warriors will take Game 1 tonight - - it's a tough turnaround for the Jazz after playing Game 7 in Houston late Saturday - - and maybe their home-court advantage will be a difference-maker - - although Games 3 and 4 in Oakland start at a traffic-unfriendly 6 p.m.
It might take seven games but the Jazz are going to find a way to advance. The key to the series, in my opinion, is how effective the Jazz can be pumping the ball inside to their big men and how hard they make the Warriors work on defense.
If the Warriors are going to use Al Harrington and Andris Biedrins as their post players, then Mehmet Okur and Carlos Boozer (especially) should have monster games. If they put Stephen Jackson on Okur, then it's on Memo to use his size on every possession.
Listening to the Jazz talk at shootaround this morning, you get the impression that they're still going to be looking for opportunities to run and get easy baskets. "We're not going to take the air out of the ball by any means," Derek Fisher said.
That's fine against just about any team other than Golden State and Phoenix. The key to beating them is to dictate tempo, get the ball inside and force them to play defense for every last tick on the 24-second clock.
I question whether the Warriors have the will to do that. The Jazz are expert at sending back screens from every direction, forcing you to watch for cutters, and getting layups. Do the Warriors want to put the work in on defense it takes to stop that?
For the most part, the Warriors play defense in the hope of forcing turnovers. They led the NBA in points off turnovers in the regular season. It's critical that Deron Williams and Co. take care of the ball and react appropriately to whatever defense the Warriors deploy.
The Jazz expect to see everything from the Warriors, who can take advantage of their versatility to switch onto just about any player except Boozer on defense. They have been warned to expect Nelson to use a zone and put small guys on big men at times.
It sounds so simple but all the Jazz have to do is play their game at their speed. The Warriors had one team's number all season in Dallas and drew those same Mavericks in the first round. I question how hungry the Warriors will be after one of the great upsets ever.
When Don Nelson was on a conference call Sunday, he said that the Jazz are deeper and tougher than the Mavericks. It's not a surprise that Nelson (although he didn't say it) probably wanted to see the Rockets in the second round.
The Warriors could run Yao Ming out of the game, lock in on Tracy McGrady and win a three-point shooting contest with the rest of the Rockets. The Jazz's big men can run the floor and score in the post. Williams also can guard Baron Davis as effectively as anyone.
You have to make your picks here by 8:30 p.m. for them to mean anything by the end of the series. I'm taking Jazz in seven, although it will be a shorter series if they can win both games at EnergySolutions Arena.
* * *
Jazz coach Jerry Sloan had a great answer when he was asked if he expected Deron Williams to match Baron Davis' production in this series. It's not going to happen, not if Davis averages the 25 points, 6.2 assists and 5.7 rebounds he did against Dallas.
"That's like me asking him to be John Stockton," Sloan said. "I never asked him to be John Stockton as long as he's been here and I never will. All I ask him is to do is be who you are, play as well as you can every day and then find out who you are after 10 or 12 years.
"You can talk about what guys are supposed to be and what they're supposed to do. Let's see what they've done in 10 years. That's how you judge them."
--Ross Siler
There's just something gimmicky about a team that puts four guards on the floor, shoots 30 three-pointers a game, concedes the rebounding game (-5.01 during the regular season) and plays defense as if it's a 24-second break from offense.
Maybe the Warriors will take Game 1 tonight - - it's a tough turnaround for the Jazz after playing Game 7 in Houston late Saturday - - and maybe their home-court advantage will be a difference-maker - - although Games 3 and 4 in Oakland start at a traffic-unfriendly 6 p.m.
It might take seven games but the Jazz are going to find a way to advance. The key to the series, in my opinion, is how effective the Jazz can be pumping the ball inside to their big men and how hard they make the Warriors work on defense.
If the Warriors are going to use Al Harrington and Andris Biedrins as their post players, then Mehmet Okur and Carlos Boozer (especially) should have monster games. If they put Stephen Jackson on Okur, then it's on Memo to use his size on every possession.
Listening to the Jazz talk at shootaround this morning, you get the impression that they're still going to be looking for opportunities to run and get easy baskets. "We're not going to take the air out of the ball by any means," Derek Fisher said.
That's fine against just about any team other than Golden State and Phoenix. The key to beating them is to dictate tempo, get the ball inside and force them to play defense for every last tick on the 24-second clock.
I question whether the Warriors have the will to do that. The Jazz are expert at sending back screens from every direction, forcing you to watch for cutters, and getting layups. Do the Warriors want to put the work in on defense it takes to stop that?
For the most part, the Warriors play defense in the hope of forcing turnovers. They led the NBA in points off turnovers in the regular season. It's critical that Deron Williams and Co. take care of the ball and react appropriately to whatever defense the Warriors deploy.
The Jazz expect to see everything from the Warriors, who can take advantage of their versatility to switch onto just about any player except Boozer on defense. They have been warned to expect Nelson to use a zone and put small guys on big men at times.
It sounds so simple but all the Jazz have to do is play their game at their speed. The Warriors had one team's number all season in Dallas and drew those same Mavericks in the first round. I question how hungry the Warriors will be after one of the great upsets ever.
When Don Nelson was on a conference call Sunday, he said that the Jazz are deeper and tougher than the Mavericks. It's not a surprise that Nelson (although he didn't say it) probably wanted to see the Rockets in the second round.
The Warriors could run Yao Ming out of the game, lock in on Tracy McGrady and win a three-point shooting contest with the rest of the Rockets. The Jazz's big men can run the floor and score in the post. Williams also can guard Baron Davis as effectively as anyone.
You have to make your picks here by 8:30 p.m. for them to mean anything by the end of the series. I'm taking Jazz in seven, although it will be a shorter series if they can win both games at EnergySolutions Arena.
* * *
Jazz coach Jerry Sloan had a great answer when he was asked if he expected Deron Williams to match Baron Davis' production in this series. It's not going to happen, not if Davis averages the 25 points, 6.2 assists and 5.7 rebounds he did against Dallas.
"That's like me asking him to be John Stockton," Sloan said. "I never asked him to be John Stockton as long as he's been here and I never will. All I ask him is to do is be who you are, play as well as you can every day and then find out who you are after 10 or 12 years.
"You can talk about what guys are supposed to be and what they're supposed to do. Let's see what they've done in 10 years. That's how you judge them."
--Ross Siler
3:08 PM
| 
3 Comments:
I'm taking the Jazz in 5.
And keep up the good blogging Ross.
I'll go with Jazz in six, although I would take any number of games required to win the series.
This could just as easily go five games as seven, the first two will likely show who wins...
In a previous entry I picked Jazz in 5, with the warriors winning either game 1 or 3. Obviously now I think the Warriors will win game 3.
Post a Comment
<< Home