The Jazz will finish 51-31 again (at least on Aug. 14)
It's a annual tradition this time of year. On the hottest, deadest day of the NBA summer, I like to go through the schedule for next season and make a pick for how the team I cover is going to finish.
It's one thing to say you think the Jazz are going to win 55 games. It's another thing to go game by game and take into account factors like back-to-back games, four-games-in-five-night stretches, etc.
There's obviously no guarantees when you're doing this Aug. 14, but I think it's a useful exercise in setting expectations. So take a look at the schedule and give me your best guess for how the Jazz will finish.
To have anything in the way of bragging rights come April 16, you have to make your prediction in the coming week. We'll go month by month, add it up, and see what we come up with in the end.
October/November (11-6)
It's not the 12-1 start from last season, but the Jazz have the opportunity to establish themselves early. They face a tough assignment opening night, heading to a rocking Oracle Arena to play a Golden State team intent on playoff payback.
There's a couple of games that will determine whether the first month is a success. The Jazz play at the Lakers in the second game of a back-to-back. They get Cleveland at EnergySolutions in a back-to-back game for the Cavaliers.
They open a three-game trip at Toronto with the Raptors having been off for the previous three days. They play the Nets in Salt Lake City when New Jersey will be most dangerous, at the start of a four-game trip.
And the Jazz play at New York in the second game of a back-to-back. I have them opening 8-0 at home - - the Jazz definitely learned to make the most of their home court in the playoffs - - and 3-6 on the road.
December (7-9)
This could be a brutal month for the Jazz, who play 10 of 16 games on the road. There's a daunting road back-to-back at San Antonio and Dallas as well as the annual pre-Christmas trip. If they go .500 in December, the Jazz probably would be happy.
They get the Heat to start the month with Shaquille O'Neal, Dwyane Wade and Co. flying in from a game in Denver the night before. One of the month's pivotal games could be at Orlando on Dec. 21. With a win, the Jazz might be able to go 3-1 on the Christmas trip.
The Jazz could lose for the first time at EnergySolutions to Dallas on Dec. 26. They also have a trap game at home against Boston on the 29th. While the Jazz play at the Lakers the night before, Boston will be enjoying an off night at the Grand America.
January (9-4)
Now it's time for the Jazz to make their climb up the standings. They play nine home games and have four one-game trips in the month. There's a big home game against Phoenix on Jan. 10 and a big road game at Denver on Jan. 17.
The Jazz's game at Houston on the 27th could be a toss-up and they have a tough back-to-back coming home to play San Antonio the following night. It's the first of nine straight road games for the defending champs on their annual rodeo trip.
February (10-3)
The Jazz will be hoping to build momentum heading into the All-Star break and the second half. They were 35-17 a year ago - - keep in mind that's 23-16 after the 12-1 start - - and project to be about 32-21 at the break this season.
They have an intriguing back-to-back at Sacramento and home against Chicago. One plus is the Jazz will catch the Bulls in the finale of a five-game trip, a game in which many teams are ready to fly home after the first quarter.
If they can come back from the break and beat Golden State at EnergySolutions, the Jazz could be poised for a big month.
The key game might be Detroit on Feb. 27 at home. The Pistons are in the middle of a four-game trip while the Jazz are playing the second game of a back-to-back.
March (11-5)
There's good and bad in terms of the schedule this month. The Jazz will play the dreaded four-games-in-five-nights on the road but come home to play five straight games at EnergySolutions. It's possible they finish the month on a seven-game winning streak.
On that homestand, the Jazz draw the Lakers at the end of a four-game trip and Charlotte in the midst of stretch in which the Bobcats play 10 of 11 games on the road. They also catch Washington at the end of a five-game trip to finish the month.
April (3-4)
Who knows if the Jazz again will be locked into their playoff seeding as the Northwest Division champs? Maybe the division will come down to a April 12 home game against Denver? Maybe the Spurs will rest all their stars in the regular season finale?
It's always tough to predict April, but it's a good guess the Jazz will play close to .500 in the final month. After a tough December, though, the Jazz will have every opportunity to build toward the playoffs in January, February and March.
So that leaves them with a . . . 51-31 record. Exactly the same as this year. I have to say I'm a little surprised to come up with an identical record as last season. It could be considered progress assuming the Jazz won't get off to another blazing start in November.
Of course, I'm not taking into account things like injuries, crooked refs and natural disasters. But in the middle of August, I'm calling my shot: The Jazz will finish 51-31 again.
--Ross Siler
It's one thing to say you think the Jazz are going to win 55 games. It's another thing to go game by game and take into account factors like back-to-back games, four-games-in-five-night stretches, etc.
There's obviously no guarantees when you're doing this Aug. 14, but I think it's a useful exercise in setting expectations. So take a look at the schedule and give me your best guess for how the Jazz will finish.
To have anything in the way of bragging rights come April 16, you have to make your prediction in the coming week. We'll go month by month, add it up, and see what we come up with in the end.
October/November (11-6)
It's not the 12-1 start from last season, but the Jazz have the opportunity to establish themselves early. They face a tough assignment opening night, heading to a rocking Oracle Arena to play a Golden State team intent on playoff payback.
There's a couple of games that will determine whether the first month is a success. The Jazz play at the Lakers in the second game of a back-to-back. They get Cleveland at EnergySolutions in a back-to-back game for the Cavaliers.
They open a three-game trip at Toronto with the Raptors having been off for the previous three days. They play the Nets in Salt Lake City when New Jersey will be most dangerous, at the start of a four-game trip.
And the Jazz play at New York in the second game of a back-to-back. I have them opening 8-0 at home - - the Jazz definitely learned to make the most of their home court in the playoffs - - and 3-6 on the road.
December (7-9)
This could be a brutal month for the Jazz, who play 10 of 16 games on the road. There's a daunting road back-to-back at San Antonio and Dallas as well as the annual pre-Christmas trip. If they go .500 in December, the Jazz probably would be happy.
They get the Heat to start the month with Shaquille O'Neal, Dwyane Wade and Co. flying in from a game in Denver the night before. One of the month's pivotal games could be at Orlando on Dec. 21. With a win, the Jazz might be able to go 3-1 on the Christmas trip.
The Jazz could lose for the first time at EnergySolutions to Dallas on Dec. 26. They also have a trap game at home against Boston on the 29th. While the Jazz play at the Lakers the night before, Boston will be enjoying an off night at the Grand America.
January (9-4)
Now it's time for the Jazz to make their climb up the standings. They play nine home games and have four one-game trips in the month. There's a big home game against Phoenix on Jan. 10 and a big road game at Denver on Jan. 17.
The Jazz's game at Houston on the 27th could be a toss-up and they have a tough back-to-back coming home to play San Antonio the following night. It's the first of nine straight road games for the defending champs on their annual rodeo trip.
February (10-3)
The Jazz will be hoping to build momentum heading into the All-Star break and the second half. They were 35-17 a year ago - - keep in mind that's 23-16 after the 12-1 start - - and project to be about 32-21 at the break this season.
They have an intriguing back-to-back at Sacramento and home against Chicago. One plus is the Jazz will catch the Bulls in the finale of a five-game trip, a game in which many teams are ready to fly home after the first quarter.
If they can come back from the break and beat Golden State at EnergySolutions, the Jazz could be poised for a big month.
The key game might be Detroit on Feb. 27 at home. The Pistons are in the middle of a four-game trip while the Jazz are playing the second game of a back-to-back.
March (11-5)
There's good and bad in terms of the schedule this month. The Jazz will play the dreaded four-games-in-five-nights on the road but come home to play five straight games at EnergySolutions. It's possible they finish the month on a seven-game winning streak.
On that homestand, the Jazz draw the Lakers at the end of a four-game trip and Charlotte in the midst of stretch in which the Bobcats play 10 of 11 games on the road. They also catch Washington at the end of a five-game trip to finish the month.
April (3-4)
Who knows if the Jazz again will be locked into their playoff seeding as the Northwest Division champs? Maybe the division will come down to a April 12 home game against Denver? Maybe the Spurs will rest all their stars in the regular season finale?
It's always tough to predict April, but it's a good guess the Jazz will play close to .500 in the final month. After a tough December, though, the Jazz will have every opportunity to build toward the playoffs in January, February and March.
So that leaves them with a . . . 51-31 record. Exactly the same as this year. I have to say I'm a little surprised to come up with an identical record as last season. It could be considered progress assuming the Jazz won't get off to another blazing start in November.
Of course, I'm not taking into account things like injuries, crooked refs and natural disasters. But in the middle of August, I'm calling my shot: The Jazz will finish 51-31 again.
--Ross Siler
7:33 PM
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4 Comments:
Sorry Ross, I must have missed the inside joke somewhere along the line. I'm assuming the repeated "Lacers" references are some sort of swipe at your old beat and not a reflection of your typing skills?
This is impossible, because I do not see some teams getting better. In fact, Golden State will be interesting because they lost one of their scorers via trade and may not be as dynamic without him. I think the youth movement and salary caps may just open up four more games for the Jazz.
Here's the thing: in 1997, the Jazz went 11-7 with the Eisley/Vaughn PG combo to start the season. 11-7. They finished the year 51-14, so make of it what you will.
I make this: Jerry's kids are always, always, better prepared in November than (most of) the rest of the league. It's like getting four free wins.
To underline the point, go back to the 26-56 Season of the Dark Night of Hell. What was the Jazz's record after four games?
October, November: 13-4
The Jazz always seem to start hot. I see no reason for this trend to change. Sloan always insure his teems are in shape and prepared.
I have them losing the season opener in Golden State (payback from last years playoffs), but key wins at home against New Jersey, L.A. Lakers, Cleavland and Chris Paul and the Hornets.
December: 10-6
I have the Jazz going 3-1 on their pre-Christmas road trip. I expect Shaq to be hobbled with some sort of injury by this time so they should beat the geezers in Miami (isn't Miami known for old people anyway, I think that's where the Golden Girls lived). Should also be fun to see who matches up with Dwayne Wade by this time. My money is on Brewer but I am rooting for Almond.
January: 9-4
The Jazz play Phoenix three times this year. Twice on the road once at home. Their Lone win against the Suns will come in January at home.
I also have them losing at home against San Antonio. That pick hurt.
February: 10-3
Good month for the Jazz. Including a 9-1 run to end the month, including wins against Chicago, Golden State and Detroit.
March: 12-4
March will be HUGE for the Jazz. April is tough so if they can get through March and avoid another melt down like last year when they lost home court to the Rockets. (I believe that besides being outmatched experience wise. The Jazz had two very emotional series against the Rockets and the Warriors. Had the Jazz secured home court in the Houston series they could have wrapped it up in five). They could set themselves up for another great post season run with home court advantage.
I have them ending the month om a 7 game win streak with home wins against the Raptors, Lakers, Sonics, Bobcats, Clippers at Minnesota and again at home against Gilbert Arenas and the Wizards.
April: 4-3
Tough April. I hate Texas two losses to the Spurs and one against the Mavs. Big wins against Houston and Denver.
58-24 a seven game improvement from last year.
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