The fourth-best team in the NBA? John Hollinger's computer thinks so
Back in December, ESPN.com's John Hollinger attended the Jazz's game in Atlanta, where he lives and works. He watched with his own eyes as the Jazz gave up 116 points and were done in by journeyman Anthony Johnson in one of their worst losses this season.
Whatever Hollinger thought of the Jazz that night, however, his computer would beg to differ. As of Wednesday, the Jazz were the No. 4 team in Hollinger's power rankings, trailing only Boston, the L.A. Lakers and New Orleans.
It's hard to fathom with the Jazz sitting ninth in the Western Conference and out of the playoffs right now. Most human power rankings have them somewhere in the teens. Scoff at the Hollinger ratings, though, at your own risk.
Last year he had the Spurs rated ahead of the 67-win Mavericks at the end of the regular season. Of course, we all know the Mavericks crapped out in the first round while the Spurs won their fourth championship in nine years.
So maybe the Jazz really are the NBA's fourth-best team. The key components in Hollinger's ratings are scoring margin, strength of schedule, recent performances and home and road games.
Scoring margin is supposed to be a better predictor of success than win/loss record. That's why Hollinger had the Spurs rated No. 1 last season. The Jazz benefit because they've been blowing out teams at home, winning by an average of 107-94.
The Jazz also haven't exactly gotten fat from a soft schedule. Their strength of schedule is .520 in Hollinger's ratings, the fourth-most difficult in the league after Toronto, Houston and Sacramento.
In terms of recent performances, the Jazz get a boost from having gone 8-2 in their last 10 games. Then again, seven of those victories have come at home and just one on the road, against the Clippers.
Home and road takes into account the 3.5-point advantage the home team has on average in the NBA. I can't fully explain it all, except to say that Hollinger is trying to take everything subjective out of the equation and focus strictly on results.
So the Jazz are ranked No. 4 right now, ahead of Detroit, Dallas, Phoenix, Portland, San Antonio and Denver. The Nuggets destroyed the Jazz last week and Portland is 3-1 against the Jazz this season.
But Hollinger stresses in his methodology that head-to-head results are just a small part of a team's overall body of work in a season. You also will be happy to know that Hollinger's playoff odds also look favorably on the Jazz.
To create the playoff odds, Hollinger plays out the rest of the season 5,000 times on his computer. The Jazz have an 89.2 percent chance of reaching the playoffs and a projected record of 51-31, same as the 2006-07 season.
That would give the Jazz the fifth-best record in the West. They also have a 54.9 percent chance of winning Northwest Division, the highest probability of any team in the Western Conference. That would bring the Jazz a No. 4 playoff seed at worst.
Hollinger's playoff odds have the Jazz with a 14.5 percent chance of reaching the NBA Finals and 6.9 percent chance of winning it all. For a team out of the playoffs after 42 games, that has to sound pretty good right now.
Whether you agree or not, Hollinger's work is impressive to say the least. Having talked to John a couple of times during last year's playoffs and also at the Atlanta game, I'll add that he's a good guy.
Before the Hawks game, Hollinger had a couple of questions to ask Jerry Sloan. Thought that had the potential to be one of the great conversations in basketball history - - a guy with the whole league broken down on his computer and a guy who joked earlier this season about not even being able to turn on a computer.
* * *
It's hard not to think Ronnie Brewer's headed to New Orleans for the rookie/sophomore game on All-Star weekend. Brewer is No. 4 in scoring (12.3 points) among second-year players behind only Rudy Gay, Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge.
Paul Millsap played in the game last season as a rookie, but NBA.com's Dave McMenamin projects Millsap won't make the field of nine sophomores. He has Millsap out right now and the Lakers' Jordan Farmar in.
--Ross Siler
Whatever Hollinger thought of the Jazz that night, however, his computer would beg to differ. As of Wednesday, the Jazz were the No. 4 team in Hollinger's power rankings, trailing only Boston, the L.A. Lakers and New Orleans.
It's hard to fathom with the Jazz sitting ninth in the Western Conference and out of the playoffs right now. Most human power rankings have them somewhere in the teens. Scoff at the Hollinger ratings, though, at your own risk.
Last year he had the Spurs rated ahead of the 67-win Mavericks at the end of the regular season. Of course, we all know the Mavericks crapped out in the first round while the Spurs won their fourth championship in nine years.
So maybe the Jazz really are the NBA's fourth-best team. The key components in Hollinger's ratings are scoring margin, strength of schedule, recent performances and home and road games.
Scoring margin is supposed to be a better predictor of success than win/loss record. That's why Hollinger had the Spurs rated No. 1 last season. The Jazz benefit because they've been blowing out teams at home, winning by an average of 107-94.
The Jazz also haven't exactly gotten fat from a soft schedule. Their strength of schedule is .520 in Hollinger's ratings, the fourth-most difficult in the league after Toronto, Houston and Sacramento.
In terms of recent performances, the Jazz get a boost from having gone 8-2 in their last 10 games. Then again, seven of those victories have come at home and just one on the road, against the Clippers.
Home and road takes into account the 3.5-point advantage the home team has on average in the NBA. I can't fully explain it all, except to say that Hollinger is trying to take everything subjective out of the equation and focus strictly on results.
So the Jazz are ranked No. 4 right now, ahead of Detroit, Dallas, Phoenix, Portland, San Antonio and Denver. The Nuggets destroyed the Jazz last week and Portland is 3-1 against the Jazz this season.
But Hollinger stresses in his methodology that head-to-head results are just a small part of a team's overall body of work in a season. You also will be happy to know that Hollinger's playoff odds also look favorably on the Jazz.
To create the playoff odds, Hollinger plays out the rest of the season 5,000 times on his computer. The Jazz have an 89.2 percent chance of reaching the playoffs and a projected record of 51-31, same as the 2006-07 season.
That would give the Jazz the fifth-best record in the West. They also have a 54.9 percent chance of winning Northwest Division, the highest probability of any team in the Western Conference. That would bring the Jazz a No. 4 playoff seed at worst.
Hollinger's playoff odds have the Jazz with a 14.5 percent chance of reaching the NBA Finals and 6.9 percent chance of winning it all. For a team out of the playoffs after 42 games, that has to sound pretty good right now.
Whether you agree or not, Hollinger's work is impressive to say the least. Having talked to John a couple of times during last year's playoffs and also at the Atlanta game, I'll add that he's a good guy.
Before the Hawks game, Hollinger had a couple of questions to ask Jerry Sloan. Thought that had the potential to be one of the great conversations in basketball history - - a guy with the whole league broken down on his computer and a guy who joked earlier this season about not even being able to turn on a computer.
* * *
It's hard not to think Ronnie Brewer's headed to New Orleans for the rookie/sophomore game on All-Star weekend. Brewer is No. 4 in scoring (12.3 points) among second-year players behind only Rudy Gay, Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge.
Paul Millsap played in the game last season as a rookie, but NBA.com's Dave McMenamin projects Millsap won't make the field of nine sophomores. He has Millsap out right now and the Lakers' Jordan Farmar in.
--Ross Siler
7:37 PM
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