The No. 3 seed
The way it's looking, if the Jazz can beat both Houston and San Antonio in their final two regular season games, they'll finish 55-27 and claim not just home-court advantage in the first round but the No. 3 playoff seed.
The Spurs would finish 55-27 if they win at Sacramento on Monday and lose to the Jazz on Wednesday. The Rockets would finish 55-27 if they lose to the Jazz on Monday and beat the L.A. Clippers at home Wednesday.
In addition, Phoenix could finish 55-27 if they close the season by beating Golden State (Monday) and Portland (Wednesday). Both games are at home for the Suns. That would leave us with four teams with identical records.
I'm going to assume the Lakers will beat Sacramento at home to claim the West's No. 1 seed and New Orleans will beat either the Clippers at home or Dallas on the road to get to 56 wins and the No. 2 seed.
The Jazz would own season series tiebreakers against San Antonio, Houston and Phoenix. They would finish 7-3 combined against those three teams and with a 34-18 conference record. By either tiebreaker, they'd claim the No. 3 seed.
I'm not sure how exactly the NBA would break a four-way tie. The Jazz would have to be assured a top four seed as a division champion.
As far as individual tiebreakers go, the Spurs have a better division record than Houston, Phoenix owns the season series against San Antonio and Houston has a better conference record than Phoenix. Round and round we go.
If it comes down to conference record, the Jazz would finish 34-18, Houston 33-19, San Antonio 32-20 and Phoenix 31-21. The Jazz would play the Suns in the first round under this tiebreaker.
If it comes down to head-to-head against the other three teams, the Jazz are 7-3, Phoenix is 6-5, Houston is 5-6 and San Antonio is 4-8. The numbers are different because some teams were only scheduled to play three times this season.
The Jazz would play San Antonio in the first round under this tiebreaker. If San Antonio loses Monday and Wednesday, Utah and the Spurs would meet in the first round as well.
Of course, the Jazz also could lose Wednesday in San Antonio for the 21st consecutive time and settle for the No. 4 seed and a series with Houston. Please feel free to post any comments/corrections and we'll get this whole thing straightened out.
--Ross Siler
10:43 PM
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8 Comments:
However unlikely (and I agree with your assumption that it won't happen), there is still a chance for the No. 2 seed as well, if the Jazz win out and New Orleans loses out. That means that FIVE teams could possibly finish at 55-27. The Jazz would own head-to-head season series against the other four, as well as a better conference record. I think that means the Jazz would have to get the 2 seed.
I think that the Jazz are best off against the Suns starting out.
If I'm looking at this correctly, if San Antonio loses in Sacramento tonight (unlikely but possible, especially with Manu out) and the Jazz beat Houston, they may be in odd position of needing to LOSE to San Antonio in the season finale in order to avoid them. Beating San Antonio would pair them in a 4-5 matchup, whereas losing to them (and assuming a Rockets home win over the Clips on Wednesday) would give them a much preferred Jazz-Rockets matchup...
Ugh. My head hurts. Incredible that with 1 to 2 games to go most teams in the west have at least 6 different possible first round matchups.
Thoughts?
holy crap! I think that at this point i cant hope for any potential first round matchup. let the chips fall where they may and let d-will make utah jazz history.
Ross,
This info comes directly from the NBA's website and explains how tie breakers are decided when multiple teams are involved:
(1) Better winning percentage in all games among the tied teams.
(2) Better winning percentage against teams in own division (only if all tied teams are in the same division).
(3) Better winning percentage against teams in own conference.
(4) Better winning percentage against teams eligible for playoffs in own conference (including teams that finished the regular season tied for a playoff position).
(5) Better net result of total points scored less total points allowed against all opponents (“point differential”).
Here is the link:
http://www.nba.com/statistics/playoff_picture.html
Based on this the Jazz would win the tie breaker and finish in the number three spot; unless New Orleans loses out which could result in a five way tie. If this happens the Jazz could get the number two spot (all of this falls under rule number 3).
Why can no sports site break down the tie breaker scenarios? I'm going to have to start charging them money to run analysis. You have to break tie breaks in a specific order.
If the Spurs, Jazz, Rockets, and Suns tie at 55-27, the following happens:
1) Jazz win the Northwest division and get a top 4 seed as do the Hornets (Southwest) and Lakers (Pacific).
2) Determine the other top 4 seed. In the three team tie break between Houston, Phoenix, and San Antonio, the Suns get the spot because they have the best combined record (5-3) of the three teams. Houston is 4-4, San Antonio 3-5.
3) Seed 1-4. It would LA and Hornets #1 and #2 (order can still switch). The Jazz have the tie break on the Suns so Utah is #3 and Phoenix #4.
4) Seed 5-8. The Spurs have the tie break on the Rockets, so San Antonio is #5, the Rockets #6.
If Utah is 55-27, that means the Jazz beat Houston on Monday. So Utah has the tie break and home court over the Rockets (head to head advantage).
The Suns have the tie break on the Spurs, so they have home court over the Spurs (head to head advantage).
And, just for good measure (while admittedly not involving the Jazz), If the Lakers lose to Sac, NO loses one of theirs to LAC or Dallas, Houston wins out against the Jazz and Clippers, and San Antonio wins out against Sac and the Jazz, then there would be a four way tie amongst those teams with 26 losses.
Still the best scenario has the Lakers losing to Clippers, Spurs dropping at least 1 game, the Rockets winning out, and the Hornets losing 1 game.
Lakers, Rockets, and Hornets tie for the best record at 56-26. The Jazz and Lakers win their division. The Hornets win their division over the Rockets by having a better division record.
Houston gets the final top 4 seed by having the best record of a team that didn't win its division.
When seeding 1-4, the Rockets win the 3 team tie break over the Hornets and Lakers and would get the #1 even though they didn't win their division. Lakers would be #2 and Hornets #3. The Rockets would have home court over the Lakers, but the Hornets at #3 would have home court over the #1 Rockets.
That would be the perfect ending to this crazy playoff race: a team that didn't win its division getting the #1 seed.
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