The possibilities
Before leaving EnergySolutions Arena after Monday's game, I made sure to tell Jonathan Feigen, the Rockets writer for the Houston Chronicle, that we'd look forward to seeing him if the Jazz lost to the Spurs, Houston beat the L.A. Clippers and Phoenix lost to Portland.
That's just one of the eight playoff possibilities for the Jazz (assuming New Orleans wins either of its last two regular-season games against the Clippers and Dallas to get to 56 victories).
The simplest explanation is that if the Jazz win Wednesday - - and remember they've lost 20 straight games to the Spurs in San Antonio dating to February 1999 - - they will claim the Western Conference's No. 3 seed and home-court advantage in the first round.
If the Jazz lose, the only way they would claim home-court is if Houston and Phoenix also lose. What's particularly interesting is that the Jazz could easily wind up with the Spurs in the first round if they beat them Wednesday.
If they lose to the Spurs, the Jazz will play either Houston or Phoenix but without home-court advantage unless the Rockets and Suns also lose. Out of the eight scenarios, four have the Jazz playing Houston, three Phoenix and one San Antonio.
Here's the breakdown, with the respective records each team would be left with and the explanation of tiebreakers. Again, this is assuming New Orleans wins one of its final two games.
JAZZ WIN
Houston wins, Phoenix wins
Records: Jazz 55-27, Phoenix 55-27, Houston 55-27, San Antonio 55-27.
Tiebreakers: This is the much-discussed four-team tie. According to the NBA office, the tie is broken first by removing the Jazz, who are guaranteed a top four seed as the Northwest Division champions. Then you do a three-way head-to-head tiebreaker with the games the Rockets, Suns and Spurs have played against each other. Phoenix is 5-3, Houston is 4-4 and San Antonio is 3-5. The Suns and Jazz then are part of a tiebreaker to determine the Nos. 3 and 4 seeds. The Jazz own the season series with Phoenix so they are third, the Suns fourth, the Rockets fifth and the Spurs sixth. NBA spokesman Tim Frank confirmed this to both Feigen and myself Monday.
Jazz would play: San Antonio with home-court advantage
Houston loses, Phoenix wins
Records: Jazz 55-27, Phoenix 55-27, San Antonio 55-27, Houston 54-28
Tiebreakers: Phoenix won the season series against San Antonio so they would be the top four seed. The Jazz own the tiebreaker against the Suns, so they are third again, the Suns fourth, the Spurs fifth and the Rockets sixth.
Jazz would play: Houston with home-court advantage
Houston wins, Phoenix loses
Records: Jazz 55-27, San Antonio 55-27, Houston 55-27, Phoenix 54-28
Tiebreakers: San Antonio has a better division record than Houston, which would give them the tiebreaker for the top four seed. The Jazz would hold the season series tiebreaker against San Antonio, leaving the Jazz third, Spurs fourth, Rockets fifth and Suns sixth.
Jazz would play: Phoenix with home-court advantage.
Houston loses, Phoenix loses
Records: Jazz 55-27, San Antonio 55-27, Houston 54-28, Phoenix 54-28
Tiebreakers: The Jazz would own the season series against the Spurs while Houston would have a better conference record than Phoenix. That would leave the Jazz third, Spurs fourth, Rockets fifth and Suns sixth.
Jazz would play: Phoenix with home-court advantage
JAZZ LOSE
Keep in mind the Jazz are guaranteed no worse than a No. 4 seed as the Northwest Division champion
Houston wins, Phoenix wins
Records: San Antonio 56-26, Jazz 54-28, Houston 55-27, Phoenix 55-27
Tiebreakers: The Spurs are the third seed (also could be New Orleans), the Jazz are fourth and the Rockets fifth thanks to their conference record over the Suns.
Jazz would play: Houston without home-court advantage
Houston loses, Phoenix wins
Records: San Antonio 56-26, Jazz 54-28, Phoenix 55-27, Houston 54-28
Tiebreakers: None needed.
Jazz would play: Phoenix without home-court advantage
Houston wins, Phoenix loses
Records: San Antonio 56-26, Jazz 54-28, Houston 55-27, Phoenix 54-28
Tiebreakers: None needed.
Jazz would play: Houston without home-court advantage
Houston loses, Phoenix loses
Records: San Antonio 56-26, Jazz 54-28, Houston 54-28, Phoenix 54-28
Tiebreakers: The Rockets would be the fifth seed again thanks to their conference record over the Suns. The Jazz would have home-court advantage against the Rockets after winning the season series
Jazz would play: Houston with home-court advantage
Based on all this, the two most likely scenarios for the Jazz come with Houston and Phoenix both winning Wednesday. If the Jazz won, they would draw the Spurs but with home-court advantage. If the Jazz lost, they would draw the Rockets without home-court advantage.
The NBA: Where total absurdity happens
--Ross Siler
That's just one of the eight playoff possibilities for the Jazz (assuming New Orleans wins either of its last two regular-season games against the Clippers and Dallas to get to 56 victories).
The simplest explanation is that if the Jazz win Wednesday - - and remember they've lost 20 straight games to the Spurs in San Antonio dating to February 1999 - - they will claim the Western Conference's No. 3 seed and home-court advantage in the first round.
If the Jazz lose, the only way they would claim home-court is if Houston and Phoenix also lose. What's particularly interesting is that the Jazz could easily wind up with the Spurs in the first round if they beat them Wednesday.
If they lose to the Spurs, the Jazz will play either Houston or Phoenix but without home-court advantage unless the Rockets and Suns also lose. Out of the eight scenarios, four have the Jazz playing Houston, three Phoenix and one San Antonio.
Here's the breakdown, with the respective records each team would be left with and the explanation of tiebreakers. Again, this is assuming New Orleans wins one of its final two games.
JAZZ WIN
Houston wins, Phoenix wins
Records: Jazz 55-27, Phoenix 55-27, Houston 55-27, San Antonio 55-27.
Tiebreakers: This is the much-discussed four-team tie. According to the NBA office, the tie is broken first by removing the Jazz, who are guaranteed a top four seed as the Northwest Division champions. Then you do a three-way head-to-head tiebreaker with the games the Rockets, Suns and Spurs have played against each other. Phoenix is 5-3, Houston is 4-4 and San Antonio is 3-5. The Suns and Jazz then are part of a tiebreaker to determine the Nos. 3 and 4 seeds. The Jazz own the season series with Phoenix so they are third, the Suns fourth, the Rockets fifth and the Spurs sixth. NBA spokesman Tim Frank confirmed this to both Feigen and myself Monday.
Jazz would play: San Antonio with home-court advantage
Houston loses, Phoenix wins
Records: Jazz 55-27, Phoenix 55-27, San Antonio 55-27, Houston 54-28
Tiebreakers: Phoenix won the season series against San Antonio so they would be the top four seed. The Jazz own the tiebreaker against the Suns, so they are third again, the Suns fourth, the Spurs fifth and the Rockets sixth.
Jazz would play: Houston with home-court advantage
Houston wins, Phoenix loses
Records: Jazz 55-27, San Antonio 55-27, Houston 55-27, Phoenix 54-28
Tiebreakers: San Antonio has a better division record than Houston, which would give them the tiebreaker for the top four seed. The Jazz would hold the season series tiebreaker against San Antonio, leaving the Jazz third, Spurs fourth, Rockets fifth and Suns sixth.
Jazz would play: Phoenix with home-court advantage.
Houston loses, Phoenix loses
Records: Jazz 55-27, San Antonio 55-27, Houston 54-28, Phoenix 54-28
Tiebreakers: The Jazz would own the season series against the Spurs while Houston would have a better conference record than Phoenix. That would leave the Jazz third, Spurs fourth, Rockets fifth and Suns sixth.
Jazz would play: Phoenix with home-court advantage
JAZZ LOSE
Keep in mind the Jazz are guaranteed no worse than a No. 4 seed as the Northwest Division champion
Houston wins, Phoenix wins
Records: San Antonio 56-26, Jazz 54-28, Houston 55-27, Phoenix 55-27
Tiebreakers: The Spurs are the third seed (also could be New Orleans), the Jazz are fourth and the Rockets fifth thanks to their conference record over the Suns.
Jazz would play: Houston without home-court advantage
Houston loses, Phoenix wins
Records: San Antonio 56-26, Jazz 54-28, Phoenix 55-27, Houston 54-28
Tiebreakers: None needed.
Jazz would play: Phoenix without home-court advantage
Houston wins, Phoenix loses
Records: San Antonio 56-26, Jazz 54-28, Houston 55-27, Phoenix 54-28
Tiebreakers: None needed.
Jazz would play: Houston without home-court advantage
Houston loses, Phoenix loses
Records: San Antonio 56-26, Jazz 54-28, Houston 54-28, Phoenix 54-28
Tiebreakers: The Rockets would be the fifth seed again thanks to their conference record over the Suns. The Jazz would have home-court advantage against the Rockets after winning the season series
Jazz would play: Houston with home-court advantage
Based on all this, the two most likely scenarios for the Jazz come with Houston and Phoenix both winning Wednesday. If the Jazz won, they would draw the Spurs but with home-court advantage. If the Jazz lost, they would draw the Rockets without home-court advantage.
The NBA: Where total absurdity happens
--Ross Siler
1:11 AM
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3 Comments:
Great recap. I went through last night trying to figure all these out too. You missed a couple of scenarios, though (even if they are a little far-fetched). What happens in all these scenarios if the Hornets lose their next two somehow? This would put them at 27 losses as well. What if they just lost one and the Spurs beat the Jazz? Who has the 2/3 out of those two? Crazy that there are so many possibilities heading into the final game of the season.
I've read so many possibilities on this, and other, sites that my head is going to explode. I'm just going to wait until Wed night and hope we're not playing the Spurs.
Thanks for the recap. Now i don't have to go through all my notes.
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