Lakers in 6
I would have thought anyone who read this blog this season would have understood what I was trying to do with the Laker Files entry. The Lakers are the NBA's most high-profile team, with one of the biggest stars in the sports world and a celebrity coach. I was trying to share a little bit of the human side to the guys who will be facing the Jazz in the playoffs.
Make no mistake: This isn't a fan site and we're not Jazz homers. We're not Lakers fans, either. Or fans of any other NBA team. I root for afternoon games and edible press food, but that's about it. We'll have more Laker Files in the coming days, but there's something a little more important tonight.
One thing I've felt is that if you spend eight months of the year covering a team, flying across the country to all those games and showing up to all those practices, you need to make some predictions come playoff time. So I'm going to take the Lakers in 6 and get ready to duck and cover.
(I did pick Jazz in 6 over Houston in the first round and Phoenix over the Lakers in 7 in the 2006 playoffs. Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle picked against the Rockets in the first round a couple of weeks ago. He told me it wasn't so bad, except that the whole city hates you.)
It's not going to be an easy series for the Lakers. As much as the Jazz have played down to the level of competition this season, they've also played up just about as often. I don't think the Lakers were especially tested by Denver in the first round and are going to get a wakeup call against the physical Jazz.
But I question how the Jazz will fare under those (extra) bright lights in this series. Yes, they reached the Western Conference finals last playoffs, but the Jazz didn't inspire a lot of confidence on the road this season in dropping games to Miami, New York, Indiana, Charlotte and Minnesota (twice).
They never have played well at Staples Center, having gone 3-14 there against the Lakers since the building opened. That includes two double-digit losses this season. As miserable a time as they have had against the Spurs in San Antonio, the Jazz have struggled nearly as much at Staples.
Here are a couple of key numbers to keep in mind as well: If you go back to the regular season, the Lakers have won 12 of their last 13 games, including the four-game sweep of Denver. They are 26-5 with Pau Gasol in the lineup, which translates to a 69-13 record for an 82-game season.
The matchups favor the Lakers, in my opinion. Ronnie Brewer is gifted at playing the passing lanes for steals and Andrei Kirilenko is tremendous at blocking shots from the weak side. Those are great defensive traits, but I don't think they'll be much help when it comes to slowing Kobe Bryant.
In three years of covering the Lakers, I saw three players successfully take Bryant out of a game with their defense. One was Ron Artest, one was Raja Bell (with help from Shawn Marion) and the third was Andre Iguodala. Only last season, Bryant scored 52 points against the Jazz and did most of his damage against Kirilenko.
The Lakers have a tall and versatile frontcourt with Lamar Odom (6-foot-10), Vladimir Radmanovic (6-foot-10) and Gasol (7 foot). My guess is the Jazz match up with Carlos Boozer on Gasol, Mehmet Okur on Radmanovic and Kirilenko on Odom. There weren't a lot of clues offered at Saturday's practice.
After Phil Jackson returned as coach, the Lakers had Odom play the role of a ball-handling guard in the triangle offense. He's one of the NBA's most versatile players and a threat to post triple-double numbers nightly. Radmanovic and Derek Fisher can spread the floor with their three-point shooting. Gasol went for 36-16-8 in Game 1 against Denver.
I think the Jazz can pound the Lakers inside with Boozer and Paul Millsap, but that would require a discipline to not just settle for jumpers. As for the benches, the Lakers are at least as deep as the Jazz thanks to Luke Walton, Jordan Farmar and Sasha Vujacic. Earlier this season, the Lakers reserves combined to score an incredible 73 points in one game.
For the Jazz to win, Deron Williams is going to have to take over. Fisher is playing with a partially torn tendon in his foot, but the Lakers could turn to Bryant to use his size and strength to slow Williams. At practice Saturday, Williams talked about how Bryant relishes the challenge of stopping the opposing team's best player.
We'll see Sunday which team was more affected by the schedule - - the Lakers with five days off after sweeping Denver or the Jazz with just 38 hours between series. The Jazz will be able to get a little rest Tuesday, with the NBA revising things so Game 2 will be played Wednesday.
To pick the Lakers in 6, I understand that means the Jazz would lose the deciding game at EnergySolutions Arena. The Lakers snapped their 19-game home winning streak back in March and that was without Gasol. Bryant is one of the few players who can will his team to win in a visiting arena. I think he'll do it again.
--Ross Siler
Make no mistake: This isn't a fan site and we're not Jazz homers. We're not Lakers fans, either. Or fans of any other NBA team. I root for afternoon games and edible press food, but that's about it. We'll have more Laker Files in the coming days, but there's something a little more important tonight.
One thing I've felt is that if you spend eight months of the year covering a team, flying across the country to all those games and showing up to all those practices, you need to make some predictions come playoff time. So I'm going to take the Lakers in 6 and get ready to duck and cover.
(I did pick Jazz in 6 over Houston in the first round and Phoenix over the Lakers in 7 in the 2006 playoffs. Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle picked against the Rockets in the first round a couple of weeks ago. He told me it wasn't so bad, except that the whole city hates you.)
It's not going to be an easy series for the Lakers. As much as the Jazz have played down to the level of competition this season, they've also played up just about as often. I don't think the Lakers were especially tested by Denver in the first round and are going to get a wakeup call against the physical Jazz.
But I question how the Jazz will fare under those (extra) bright lights in this series. Yes, they reached the Western Conference finals last playoffs, but the Jazz didn't inspire a lot of confidence on the road this season in dropping games to Miami, New York, Indiana, Charlotte and Minnesota (twice).
They never have played well at Staples Center, having gone 3-14 there against the Lakers since the building opened. That includes two double-digit losses this season. As miserable a time as they have had against the Spurs in San Antonio, the Jazz have struggled nearly as much at Staples.
Here are a couple of key numbers to keep in mind as well: If you go back to the regular season, the Lakers have won 12 of their last 13 games, including the four-game sweep of Denver. They are 26-5 with Pau Gasol in the lineup, which translates to a 69-13 record for an 82-game season.
The matchups favor the Lakers, in my opinion. Ronnie Brewer is gifted at playing the passing lanes for steals and Andrei Kirilenko is tremendous at blocking shots from the weak side. Those are great defensive traits, but I don't think they'll be much help when it comes to slowing Kobe Bryant.
In three years of covering the Lakers, I saw three players successfully take Bryant out of a game with their defense. One was Ron Artest, one was Raja Bell (with help from Shawn Marion) and the third was Andre Iguodala. Only last season, Bryant scored 52 points against the Jazz and did most of his damage against Kirilenko.
The Lakers have a tall and versatile frontcourt with Lamar Odom (6-foot-10), Vladimir Radmanovic (6-foot-10) and Gasol (7 foot). My guess is the Jazz match up with Carlos Boozer on Gasol, Mehmet Okur on Radmanovic and Kirilenko on Odom. There weren't a lot of clues offered at Saturday's practice.
After Phil Jackson returned as coach, the Lakers had Odom play the role of a ball-handling guard in the triangle offense. He's one of the NBA's most versatile players and a threat to post triple-double numbers nightly. Radmanovic and Derek Fisher can spread the floor with their three-point shooting. Gasol went for 36-16-8 in Game 1 against Denver.
I think the Jazz can pound the Lakers inside with Boozer and Paul Millsap, but that would require a discipline to not just settle for jumpers. As for the benches, the Lakers are at least as deep as the Jazz thanks to Luke Walton, Jordan Farmar and Sasha Vujacic. Earlier this season, the Lakers reserves combined to score an incredible 73 points in one game.
For the Jazz to win, Deron Williams is going to have to take over. Fisher is playing with a partially torn tendon in his foot, but the Lakers could turn to Bryant to use his size and strength to slow Williams. At practice Saturday, Williams talked about how Bryant relishes the challenge of stopping the opposing team's best player.
We'll see Sunday which team was more affected by the schedule - - the Lakers with five days off after sweeping Denver or the Jazz with just 38 hours between series. The Jazz will be able to get a little rest Tuesday, with the NBA revising things so Game 2 will be played Wednesday.
To pick the Lakers in 6, I understand that means the Jazz would lose the deciding game at EnergySolutions Arena. The Lakers snapped their 19-game home winning streak back in March and that was without Gasol. Bryant is one of the few players who can will his team to win in a visiting arena. I think he'll do it again.
--Ross Siler
12:29 AM
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4 Comments:
Good stuff. I like the insights on the Laker players. I just could not beleive who you picked for individual honors. Besides Kobe for MVP.
Your prediction is wrong but Im not mad at ya. Jazz in 7 with an all-time classic in game 7.
We steal game 1 and they take game 6.
Love the blog. Dont stop.
GO JAZZ!!!
Come on, Ross, we've gotta boo someone. Booing Kobe makes him mad. Booing your picks doesn't seem to affect the Jazz one way or the other...
Nah, keep it up. Good to have some slightly unbiased picks among the fans.
That being said, Jazz in 6.
There is something wrong about giving the Most Improved Player to a guy that only played in 35 games. He could have caught lightning in a bottle for a short period. Giving every award to a Laker shows being a homer I don't care what you say.
Good explanation Ross. We weren't bagging you because of your choice to do the Lakers files. We (or at least I) was bagging you because of your seemingly lopsided and, as the final vote tallies have shown for COY and Most Improved, obviously, um, 'unique' picks of three Lakers for the end of season awards.
Keep doin' what your doin', love the blog. Just realize that sometimes you come across as still a bit starstruck when it comes to talking about the Lakers.
Oh, and I agree, Lakers in 6 games.
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