The Heat is on
It's going to be an interesting season trying to read what Carlos Boozer's going to do with that opt out clause in his contract next summer. There's already been a zillion stories this summer connecting Boozer and the Miami Heat, with another two coming today on ESPN.com and the Miami Herald.
Talking to Kevin O'Connor about this subject earlier this month, the Jazz general manager seemed relatively unconcerned, saying that it's a business for Boozer as well as the Jazz. Boozer's due to earn $12.6 million for the 2009-10 season, which he'd be walking away from by opting out.
The Jazz would risk letting Boozer leave as an unrestricted free agent and getting nothing in return, but I don't think I would do anything rash in O'Connor's position.
First of all, I question whether Boozer really would decide to leave a contender in Utah (with Deron Williams signing an extension this summer) for the uncertainty in Miami. The Heat are breaking in a rookie coach in Erik Spoelstra this season and Dwyane Wade is only signed through 2009-10.
In other words, there's no guarantee Boozer would play any more than one season with Wade. I would want to be absolutely sure Wade wasn't going to head home to Chicago as a free agent if I was Boozer. As great as South Beach is, it's not much fun to spend an entire NBA season on a last-place team.
There are also significant advantages for the Jazz when it comes to re-signing Boozer, thanks to the NBA's free-agent rules. They can offer a six-year contract (as opposed to five for any other team) with an annual raise that's 10.5 percent of the first-year value (as opposed to 8 percent for any other team).
Assuming the NBA salary cap is set around $60 million next summer, Boozer would be eligible to sign a maximum deal starting at $18 million a season. The Jazz could offer a six-year, $136 million deal while Miami could offer five years and $104 million.
It's an insane amount of money either way, but Boozer's probably not going to make up that $32 million difference as a 33-year-old free agent in 2014.
The Jazz also can go over the salary cap to re-sign Boozer while Miami (or any other team) would have to fit him in under the cap. The Heat already have $37.9 million in salaries committed for 2009-10 between Wade, Mark Blount, Udonis Haslem, Marcus Banks and Daequan Cook. Remember they would have to be approximately $18 million under the cap.
The only other teams who in theory could get that far under the cap to sign Boozer are Atlanta ($26 million, no Marvin Williams extension, no Josh Smith extension), the L.A. Clippers ($29 million, no Elton Brand, no Corey Maggette, no Shaun Livingston), Memphis ($36 million), Philadelphia ($26 million, no Andre Iguodala extension, no free-agent signing this summer) and Seattle ($33 million).
Otherwise, Boozer would have to sign for drastically less money, if not the midlevel exception, or the Jazz and Boozer would have to work out a sign-and-trade. This would enable Boozer to get his payday and the Jazz to get something in return.
Last point: I question whether Boozer, who has largely rebuilt his reputation after his controversial exit from Cleveland, would want to leave another team in the lurch. How can you walk away from a potential championship team in Utah for a mess in Miami if the Heat suffer through another horrendous season? Even if Boozer does call Miami home.
--Ross Siler
Talking to Kevin O'Connor about this subject earlier this month, the Jazz general manager seemed relatively unconcerned, saying that it's a business for Boozer as well as the Jazz. Boozer's due to earn $12.6 million for the 2009-10 season, which he'd be walking away from by opting out.
The Jazz would risk letting Boozer leave as an unrestricted free agent and getting nothing in return, but I don't think I would do anything rash in O'Connor's position.
First of all, I question whether Boozer really would decide to leave a contender in Utah (with Deron Williams signing an extension this summer) for the uncertainty in Miami. The Heat are breaking in a rookie coach in Erik Spoelstra this season and Dwyane Wade is only signed through 2009-10.
In other words, there's no guarantee Boozer would play any more than one season with Wade. I would want to be absolutely sure Wade wasn't going to head home to Chicago as a free agent if I was Boozer. As great as South Beach is, it's not much fun to spend an entire NBA season on a last-place team.
There are also significant advantages for the Jazz when it comes to re-signing Boozer, thanks to the NBA's free-agent rules. They can offer a six-year contract (as opposed to five for any other team) with an annual raise that's 10.5 percent of the first-year value (as opposed to 8 percent for any other team).
Assuming the NBA salary cap is set around $60 million next summer, Boozer would be eligible to sign a maximum deal starting at $18 million a season. The Jazz could offer a six-year, $136 million deal while Miami could offer five years and $104 million.
It's an insane amount of money either way, but Boozer's probably not going to make up that $32 million difference as a 33-year-old free agent in 2014.
The Jazz also can go over the salary cap to re-sign Boozer while Miami (or any other team) would have to fit him in under the cap. The Heat already have $37.9 million in salaries committed for 2009-10 between Wade, Mark Blount, Udonis Haslem, Marcus Banks and Daequan Cook. Remember they would have to be approximately $18 million under the cap.
The only other teams who in theory could get that far under the cap to sign Boozer are Atlanta ($26 million, no Marvin Williams extension, no Josh Smith extension), the L.A. Clippers ($29 million, no Elton Brand, no Corey Maggette, no Shaun Livingston), Memphis ($36 million), Philadelphia ($26 million, no Andre Iguodala extension, no free-agent signing this summer) and Seattle ($33 million).
Otherwise, Boozer would have to sign for drastically less money, if not the midlevel exception, or the Jazz and Boozer would have to work out a sign-and-trade. This would enable Boozer to get his payday and the Jazz to get something in return.
Last point: I question whether Boozer, who has largely rebuilt his reputation after his controversial exit from Cleveland, would want to leave another team in the lurch. How can you walk away from a potential championship team in Utah for a mess in Miami if the Heat suffer through another horrendous season? Even if Boozer does call Miami home.
--Ross Siler
9:58 AM
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4 Comments:
I can't see Carlos leaving either. He's become an all-star here, rebuilt his reputation here and gets to play with the best PG in the league (and he and Deron connect well). That's not saying we're not going to have too end up spending a lot more of Larry Miller-s money, but hey what;s money for--as long as he keeps earning it and improves his defense.
If I was going to make a dramatic move--and I'm not really much for that because we we have a really great young team with our current Jazz roster that is really good and getting better--How's this? Hey I love what AK provides (although he's way over-paid), but how long he'll remain happy being the 4th or 5th option on offense remains to be seen. And we are going to run into a money problem in another year or so with DWill at max and having to redo/pay more to Boozer, Okur and Millsap, etc. So my suggestion is trade AK now, during the draft, for Joe Alexander out of WVU (currently projected to go #8 to the Bucks—-no lower than #12). I know it would help us out immensely in the money department (which is probably why the trade would be difficult), but best of all, we'd be getting a guy that the scouts are calling a fierce worker who's freakishly athletic and doesn't quit! One publication called him a "Super Athletic Matt Harpring!" Geez what better endorsement can you get or want for a Sloan-coached Jazz player! ...and I still believe we can make that sort of move and make some small move to ensure we get Hibbert. What do you think? Thanks for the column!
Tim, although thats a great proposal, the money with AK doesn't become an issue until after the season. Also we shouldn't get Joe and then draft Hibbert, that is just making us too young again. You can't just ship AK47 for a draft pick since salaries don't match and we would have take back quite a few contracts to make it work money wise.
Xanthis--Good words. I didn't think the money/salaries would work out, but he is a fascinating talent (Joe Alexander) that would mesh well with the Jazz. Frankly, I just hope AK stays happy and excited--we've got such a great young team.
I do hope hope we do something to try and get Hibbert though. He's the one guy I think that can come in and and contribute/help the team this year!
The way its looking, with Charlotte getting Denver's pick, is that Hibbert won't last pick #20. The mock draft on ESPN is one I think would be great for Utah.
It has us taking Ajinca which could be a good idea if he is willing to stay overseas. He has said he wants to come to the NBA now though.
I think the sleeper pick people should watch out for is the second round where hopefully the Jazz can land Goran Dragic, a PG out of Slovenia.
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