Make or break
It's good to be back to blogging . . . and a little hard to believe the Jazz season starts again Monday. For the first time since I started covering the NBA, I must admit that I don't have any real feel for how the team I write about will finish.
After the way they played after the Kyle Korver trade last season, the Jazz very easily could go 39-2 at home, claim the Western Conference's top playoff seed (which comes with home-court advantage) and win their first championship.
But with so many players that can become free agents next summer, the Jazz also could exit the playoffs after just one round. Neither outcome would surprise me, which is why I'm describing this as a make-or-break season.
My biggest question is how the Jazz will come together with so many players having uncertain futures. Just to recap things, Paul Millsap, Ronnie Price, Jarron Collins and Brevin Knight all will be free agents after next summer.
Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur and Korver all can opt out of their contracts and become free agents. That's seven players right there. With a big season, Ronnie Brewer could start talking about a contract extension next summer.
Morris Almond and Kyrylo Fesenko also could be free agents if the Jazz don't exercise the options in their rookie contracts. To put it simply, there's a lot of guys that have a lot at stake in their numbers this season.
There's also no guarantee about Jerry Sloan, who's entering the final year of his contract. He signed a one-year extension to return last December. We'll see if the Jazz and Sloan wait a little longer to decide about next season.
About the only players whose futures in Utah are guaranteed long-term are Deron Williams, Andrei Kirilenko and C.J. Miles.
Williams has said he likes the pressure everybody's facing, but I would be concerned about so many individual agendas.
Adding to that concern is trying to figure out how playing time will be divided. There's just not enough minutes to go around for Brewer, Korver, Miles, Almond, Kirilenko and Matt Harpring at the two wing positions.
If Deron Williams plays 40 minutes a game, that leaves only eight minutes for Ronnie Price and Brevin Knight as backup point guards. Price made the case for a greater role the second half of last season. Knight has started 423 games in his career.
Although competition is hardly a bad thing, it could breed frustration among the players who come out on the losing end, especially if they are facing free agency next summer.
Looking ahead, the Jazz's first priority should be becoming a minimum top 10 defensive team in the NBA. I refuse to believe they can't be after watching the Jazz hold San Antonio and New Orleans to 64 and 66 points in consecutive games in April.
The Jazz gave up 99.3 points a game on average, which ranked 13th in the league. The top four defensive teams were Detroit (90.1), Boston (90.3), San Antonio (90.6) and Houston (92.0). The Jazz can get there, but it's going to take a team commitment.
Second, the Jazz can't afford to give away games against lottery teams. They did so far too often on the road last season and paid the price when they came up three wins short of the Western Conference's top record.
The Jazz have to recognize the value of home-court advantage in the playoffs and must do everything to ensure they have it for a minimum of two rounds. Remember they haven't even had it in the first round the last two years.
Had they owned home-court advantage against the Lakers, I'm convinced the Jazz would have advanced to the conference finals. Instead, they came home down 2-0 in the series and wound up losing Game 5 on the road.
(They also had to turn around and play the Lakers 36 hours after closing out Houston. There's a lesson there in taking care of business as early as possible in the playoffs. The Lakers had six days off thanks to their sweep of Denver.)
Third, the Jazz have to hope their young players can take another step forward in their development. Brewer can cement himself as a starting shooting guard in the NBA if he makes progress in both his shooting and his defense.
Miles has to prove himself worthy of the $15 million investment the Jazz made in bringing him back. Of course, Miles also has to get the playing time necessary to do so. It also would greatly help the Jazz if Fesenko or Kosta Koufos emerged as a contributor.
The fourth thing for the Jazz is out of their control. They were almost entirely injury-free last season, with Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer combining to miss only one game, and must hope that trend continues.
We've already seen a number of key injuries even before the start of training camp, with Golden State's Monta Ellis, San Antonio's Manu Ginobili and Washington's Gilbert Arenas all starting the season hurt.
With Denver trading Marcus Camby in a luxury-tax saving move, the Jazz probably will cruise to another Northwest Division title. The question is how long that time at the top will last.
Portland will be bolstered by Greg Oden's return from injury. The Blazers are a probable playoff team this season, at least in my opinion. And Oklahoma City has the potential to be very good in a couple of years.
The Thunder is building around top draft picks Kevin Durant, Jeff Green and Russell Westbrook and could have $30 million in cap space next summer. It's easy to see the competition that will be coming the Jazz's way in the future.
I'll check in with some thoughts on the rest of the league later this week. It's good to be back and exciting to get started again.
--Ross Siler
After the way they played after the Kyle Korver trade last season, the Jazz very easily could go 39-2 at home, claim the Western Conference's top playoff seed (which comes with home-court advantage) and win their first championship.
But with so many players that can become free agents next summer, the Jazz also could exit the playoffs after just one round. Neither outcome would surprise me, which is why I'm describing this as a make-or-break season.
My biggest question is how the Jazz will come together with so many players having uncertain futures. Just to recap things, Paul Millsap, Ronnie Price, Jarron Collins and Brevin Knight all will be free agents after next summer.
Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur and Korver all can opt out of their contracts and become free agents. That's seven players right there. With a big season, Ronnie Brewer could start talking about a contract extension next summer.
Morris Almond and Kyrylo Fesenko also could be free agents if the Jazz don't exercise the options in their rookie contracts. To put it simply, there's a lot of guys that have a lot at stake in their numbers this season.
There's also no guarantee about Jerry Sloan, who's entering the final year of his contract. He signed a one-year extension to return last December. We'll see if the Jazz and Sloan wait a little longer to decide about next season.
About the only players whose futures in Utah are guaranteed long-term are Deron Williams, Andrei Kirilenko and C.J. Miles.
Williams has said he likes the pressure everybody's facing, but I would be concerned about so many individual agendas.
Adding to that concern is trying to figure out how playing time will be divided. There's just not enough minutes to go around for Brewer, Korver, Miles, Almond, Kirilenko and Matt Harpring at the two wing positions.
If Deron Williams plays 40 minutes a game, that leaves only eight minutes for Ronnie Price and Brevin Knight as backup point guards. Price made the case for a greater role the second half of last season. Knight has started 423 games in his career.
Although competition is hardly a bad thing, it could breed frustration among the players who come out on the losing end, especially if they are facing free agency next summer.
Looking ahead, the Jazz's first priority should be becoming a minimum top 10 defensive team in the NBA. I refuse to believe they can't be after watching the Jazz hold San Antonio and New Orleans to 64 and 66 points in consecutive games in April.
The Jazz gave up 99.3 points a game on average, which ranked 13th in the league. The top four defensive teams were Detroit (90.1), Boston (90.3), San Antonio (90.6) and Houston (92.0). The Jazz can get there, but it's going to take a team commitment.
Second, the Jazz can't afford to give away games against lottery teams. They did so far too often on the road last season and paid the price when they came up three wins short of the Western Conference's top record.
The Jazz have to recognize the value of home-court advantage in the playoffs and must do everything to ensure they have it for a minimum of two rounds. Remember they haven't even had it in the first round the last two years.
Had they owned home-court advantage against the Lakers, I'm convinced the Jazz would have advanced to the conference finals. Instead, they came home down 2-0 in the series and wound up losing Game 5 on the road.
(They also had to turn around and play the Lakers 36 hours after closing out Houston. There's a lesson there in taking care of business as early as possible in the playoffs. The Lakers had six days off thanks to their sweep of Denver.)
Third, the Jazz have to hope their young players can take another step forward in their development. Brewer can cement himself as a starting shooting guard in the NBA if he makes progress in both his shooting and his defense.
Miles has to prove himself worthy of the $15 million investment the Jazz made in bringing him back. Of course, Miles also has to get the playing time necessary to do so. It also would greatly help the Jazz if Fesenko or Kosta Koufos emerged as a contributor.
The fourth thing for the Jazz is out of their control. They were almost entirely injury-free last season, with Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer combining to miss only one game, and must hope that trend continues.
We've already seen a number of key injuries even before the start of training camp, with Golden State's Monta Ellis, San Antonio's Manu Ginobili and Washington's Gilbert Arenas all starting the season hurt.
With Denver trading Marcus Camby in a luxury-tax saving move, the Jazz probably will cruise to another Northwest Division title. The question is how long that time at the top will last.
Portland will be bolstered by Greg Oden's return from injury. The Blazers are a probable playoff team this season, at least in my opinion. And Oklahoma City has the potential to be very good in a couple of years.
The Thunder is building around top draft picks Kevin Durant, Jeff Green and Russell Westbrook and could have $30 million in cap space next summer. It's easy to see the competition that will be coming the Jazz's way in the future.
I'll check in with some thoughts on the rest of the league later this week. It's good to be back and exciting to get started again.
--Ross Siler
1:30 PM
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