Defining questions
Hard to believe, but the Jazz were eliminated from the playoffs by the Lakers a month ago Wednesday. Maybe that's a better commentary on the length of the NBA playoffs - - can we please have best-of-five series in the first two rounds? - - than anything.
We still have another month until the opt-out decisions from Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur and Kyle Korver are due, but I think we've been able to distill the Jazz's off-season to a few key defining questions. Feel free to answer for yourself.
1. Do the Jazz make the playoffs next season if Carlos Boozer leaves without them acquiring anything in return? What happens to an offense predicated on the pick-and-roll without Boozer? Can you write off the last two seasons with Boozer to injuries and personal issues? Do you worry about losing a two-time All-Star, who regularly posts 20-point, 10-rebound games, in the prime of his career at age 27?
2. How much more do you value a traditional center as opposed to Mehmet Okur? Okur was the NBA's sixth-best three-point shooter last season, but do you want to pay market value for a center when Okur is largely a specialist?
3. How desperate are you to avoid paying the luxury tax and losing out on a share ($3 million in 2007-08) of tax revenue? In recent seasons, luxury-tax payers have been big-spending owners (New York, Dallas, Cleveland) or championship-caliber teams (Boston, Lakers, Miami, San Antonio). Not small-market teams coming off eighth-place finishes in their conference.
4. Is it worth paying huge dollars to a hustle player? Paul Millsap's development through three seasons has been impressive, but does he deserve a $30 million to $40 million contract. Nobody talks about the option of not re-signing Millsap - - largely because Kevin O'Connor, Greg Miller and Jerry Sloan have sung his praises so often - - but the two easiest roles to replace in the NBA are hustle players and three-point shooters. Or is Millsap destined to be more than a hustle player?
5. Is there a market for Andrei Kirilenko? With two years and $34 million left on his contract, the odds seem slim. But at this stage is it best for the Jazz to take back whatever they can get in a potential Kirilenko trade just for the sake of payroll considerations? Can you afford to bring back Kirilenko at $16 million next season if he's just going to come off the bench?
6. Deron Williams is at his best when motivated. It's something Jazz fans haven't had to worry about these last four years. How concerned are you that Williams might interpret an off-season move the wrong way and be less-than-inspired heading into next season? Would Williams be as effective with a pick-and-roll partner other than Boozer?
As I wrote above, feel free to answer these questions or add other questions to the list. For what it's worth, I keep coming back to the very first question, answering no, and proceeding from there. It's probably not what fans want to hear, but the Jazz either have to re-sign Boozer or work a sign-and-trade for him.
--Ross Siler
We still have another month until the opt-out decisions from Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur and Kyle Korver are due, but I think we've been able to distill the Jazz's off-season to a few key defining questions. Feel free to answer for yourself.
1. Do the Jazz make the playoffs next season if Carlos Boozer leaves without them acquiring anything in return? What happens to an offense predicated on the pick-and-roll without Boozer? Can you write off the last two seasons with Boozer to injuries and personal issues? Do you worry about losing a two-time All-Star, who regularly posts 20-point, 10-rebound games, in the prime of his career at age 27?
2. How much more do you value a traditional center as opposed to Mehmet Okur? Okur was the NBA's sixth-best three-point shooter last season, but do you want to pay market value for a center when Okur is largely a specialist?
3. How desperate are you to avoid paying the luxury tax and losing out on a share ($3 million in 2007-08) of tax revenue? In recent seasons, luxury-tax payers have been big-spending owners (New York, Dallas, Cleveland) or championship-caliber teams (Boston, Lakers, Miami, San Antonio). Not small-market teams coming off eighth-place finishes in their conference.
4. Is it worth paying huge dollars to a hustle player? Paul Millsap's development through three seasons has been impressive, but does he deserve a $30 million to $40 million contract. Nobody talks about the option of not re-signing Millsap - - largely because Kevin O'Connor, Greg Miller and Jerry Sloan have sung his praises so often - - but the two easiest roles to replace in the NBA are hustle players and three-point shooters. Or is Millsap destined to be more than a hustle player?
5. Is there a market for Andrei Kirilenko? With two years and $34 million left on his contract, the odds seem slim. But at this stage is it best for the Jazz to take back whatever they can get in a potential Kirilenko trade just for the sake of payroll considerations? Can you afford to bring back Kirilenko at $16 million next season if he's just going to come off the bench?
6. Deron Williams is at his best when motivated. It's something Jazz fans haven't had to worry about these last four years. How concerned are you that Williams might interpret an off-season move the wrong way and be less-than-inspired heading into next season? Would Williams be as effective with a pick-and-roll partner other than Boozer?
As I wrote above, feel free to answer these questions or add other questions to the list. For what it's worth, I keep coming back to the very first question, answering no, and proceeding from there. It's probably not what fans want to hear, but the Jazz either have to re-sign Boozer or work a sign-and-trade for him.
--Ross Siler
2:54 PM
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3 Comments:
All great questions.
I'll take a stab at #4. I think Millsap is destined to be more than a hustle player. I would hate to see him leave the Jazz. But I don't think he's proven himself completely yet. Depending on what happens with Boozer (or his replacement), the Jazz should give Millsap a contract that approaches the range you're talking about.
I'm a deconstructionist, the jazz can afford to let boozer walk, but it would be smart to work a sign and trade, memo is not worth paying money to, millsap won't be as effective as boozer, but he's cheaper and his effort is beyond question and he'll perform better next year, if the jazz can move ak it would probably be a good move, make deron happy. Look at Denver, it could've easily have been the jazz in that series, if it were the jazz, I'd say keep the team together, they had their chance to prove themselves, and they didn't do it, they have some good pieces, minus these players, they might still be an eight place team, if they learn to win on the road.
Its verbose, but here we go...
1. I answer your question with a question: With Boozer, will the Jazz ever be any better than a team who is consistent only in falling short of expectations, competing regularly for the 8th seed, but nothing more? With the evidence laid before us- numerous injuries with frustratingly slow recoveries (and the inevitable questions of toughness, though those questions are raised on the court as well as off), “Ole” defense (I honestly heard one of the commentators on ESPN call it that!), seeming indifference at times, and all the distracting, chemistry-damaging, bone-headed, did-he-really-just-say/do-that?! moments , all coupled with the rise of several promising teams elsewhere in the West- I have to think that a Jazz team with Boozer at its core is destined for a second-tier existence. Good enough to be a playoff spoiler, but not quite able to fight for the championship.
In this way, Carlos Boozer reminds me of Zach Randolph, albeit a more skilled version. Randolph’s a guy who can consistently give you 20 and 10, but no defense, and whose teams are arguably better after he has moved on. Look at Portland. Granted, the circumstances were different, but can you argue that, despite the down years, they are not better off without Randolph?
So, perhaps the Jazz will not make the playoffs next year if they allow Boozer to move on. Is that really worse than years of wallowing in mediocrity? I’m not so sure.
2. I don’t think Memo’s game is without value, especially considering the way teams are playing in the league now. Memo has also worked hard to expand his offensive repertoire and add a post up game. Is his game worth 12-14 million annually? I don’t think so. 10 million? Probably, though that seems a bit much, at least before he shows some defensive prowess.
3. With the team as it is presently constructed, I am pretty desperate to avoid the luxury tax. Faced with a frustratingly underachieving team, I don’t want to have to consider the possibility that the team cannot pay the bills and would have to start looking at drastic measures. Simply put, the luxury tax is only worth dabbling in if a championship is within reach.
4. Paul Millsap is more than just a hustle player. He is, in many ways, the heart of the team. Does he deserve $30 to $40 million? Depending on the length of the contract, I am inclined to say yes.
I would love to see the Jazz bring in a defensive big man to be a three headed monster with Millsap and Okur. With Memo able to play both center and power forward, the options presented by such a scenario are potentially titillating. For the right price, might someone like Dalembert, Bogut, Haywood, or Kaman be acquired? Tyrus Thomas is another interesting player who is supposedly available.
5. Andrei would be difficult to trade, at best. It seems however, that it would be better for both the Jazz and AK to be able to move on from their rocky relationship. It may be time to cut the losses. As a fan of the game of basketball, I hope that Andrei is moved to a team where he can shine. Those years when he was at the top of his game were an absolute joy to watch.
6. This is the question that scares me more than any other. There is no doubt that whatever the Jazz decide to do, Deron Williams will be at the core of team. If he is unhappy, how quickly can/will things go south? Considering the economic climate, both of the team and the league, and the potential draft position of the Jazz next year (nothing to bet the house on, but a bargaining chip at the very least), it may be a better time than any to blow things up (yikes!) and start anew, looking to the future and not just a quick fix. However, if this alienates Deron, it is about the worst thing that could be done. That being said, I find myself hoping that the Jazz begin the summer by taking a Pritchard-esque approach to the draft, deftly maneuvering themselves into numerous assets, including future picks...with Deron's blessing, of course.
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