Scott's pre-UFC Fight Night breakdown
UFC Fight Night airs Wednesday at 7 p.m. MT on Spike TV. The debut episode of "The Ultimate Fighter" season six featuring Matt Hughes and Matt Serra as coaches follows the action. Who are your picks to win Fight Night, and what's your prediction for what we'll see on TUF 6? Post a comment. With that, here's what I think we can look forward to Wednesday night.
Din Thomas vs. Kenny Florian
Two Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belts step into the octagon for the main event, both coming off impressive wins, Din Thomas overpowering the young striker Jeremy Stephens to secure an armbar and Kenny Florian mounting the larger Alvin Robinson to pound out a submission. Florian has been improving steadily since his decision loss to Sean Sherk for the lightweight belt. Thomas has really sent a message since his appearance on The Ultimate Fighter 4. Both guys are exciting fighters, and this should be a great main event matchup.
Thomas is the better puncher and boxer, and a fight on the feet favors him. However, Kenny Florian does train with guys like Golden Gloves winners Marcus Davis and Stephan Bonnar and Canadian slugger Patrick Cote at Sityodong outside Boston. So it's not like he doesn't see powerful strikers who are good boxers every day. His defense was a little shaky in his win against Robinson, but he more than made up for that on the ground even against a guy as well versed as Robinson.
Florian employs a smothering brand of Jiu-Jitsu. He likes to get on top of people, work for position and exploit opportunities. If Din Thomas uses the same open guard against Florian that he did against Clay Guida, this fight will be wrapped up before the end of the second round. Florian has a penchant from throwing cut-opening elbows, and if he can get the leverage from Din's open guard to really swing those, look out. I give the edge on the ground to Florian, with the acknowledgement that Thomas knows how to handle himself there and isn't likely to make a simple mistake for Kenny to take advantage of.
I'll say Florian comes away the victor.
After the steroid mess with Sean Sherk and Hermes Franca post-UFC 73, the lightweight division really is a wide-open one. B.J. Penn is the top contender for Sherk should he remain champ. Who fights Penn for a vacant title should Sherk lose his appeal to the California State Athletic Commission? The winner of this fight could put himself in the mix. According to MMAjunkie.com, rumors are Frankie Edgar will fight Spencer Fisher at UFC 78 in November, on the same card in which B.J. Penn will fight either Sherk or someone else. Roger Huerta and Joe Stevenson are two guys who could get the nod.
However, Penn and Thomas fought back in 2001 at UFC 32, where B.J. threw a fantastic knee to the head and sent Din down hard. If Thomas comes out and explodes on Kenny Florian, UFC matchmaker Joe Silva might consider Penn vs. Thomas an intriguing enough rematch.
Chris Leben vs. Terry Martin
Ever since Terry Martin slimmed down to the 185-pound division, he's looked fantastic. His convincing knockout wins over Jorge Rivera and Ivan Salaverry were impressive, hinting that he's a much bigger force at middleweight than he was in his mixed showing at light heavyweight.
Chris Leben is, well, Chris Leben. If someone wants to stand in front of him and throw leather, he's more than happy to oblige, even if it doesn't always work in his favor, and he's a crowd favorite for it. His toe-to-toe war with Patrick Cote is a blueprint for how a Chris Leben fight is fought: Swing for the fences, wild haymakers, last man standing wins. Leben won't put on a boxing clinic.
Unfortunately, the past year hasn't been kind to the Crippler. He's posted losses against now middleweight champ Anderson Silva, Jason MacDonald and Kaleb Starnes while only managing to chop down Jorge Santiago. But the Starnes fight was so tight, even Kaleb said he would have given it to Leben.
This fight is going to tell us two things. A) Just how serious a contender is Terry Martin at 185, and B) How has Chris Leben evolved in the past year. Leben has no shortage of guys to learn from at Team Quest, but he can be a stubborn guy. Martin vs. Leben has all the makings of a slugfest, but Leben won't be easy knockout prey. Even in his losses, he's shown an incredible chin, taking a serious crack to the jaw from Starnes in the second round and still coming forward.
Martin has a flair for the dramatic, both inside and outside the cage. He's an extremely intelligent guy, and a good fighter, but it's hard to decide whether his pre-fight talk dismissing Leben's ability is for real (he has a degree in psychology, after all). If Martin thinks he's going to run through Leben like he did Salaverry and Rivera, he's sadly mistaken. He's going to need to take this fight seriously or he's going to be staring at the ceiling wondering what happened.
It's a tough call, both guys have knockout power and the puncher's chance can screw the odds every time. Leben's had two tough losses, he sounds focused and ready, and his only knockout loss -- the most likely way Martin would win -- is to Anderson Silva, who came at him with crazy knee strikes and a mean Thai clinch. Terry Martin doesn't have that arsenal to bring to this party, and he's been beaten down by punches from big man Jason Lambert. It's a coin toss, but I'll give Leben the benefit of the doubt on this one.
Nate Diaz vs. Junior Assuncao
TUF 5 winner Nate Diaz gets his first chance to fight after winning the six-figure contract, facing off against fellow Jiu-Jitsu practitioner Junior Assuncao. Diaz is a crafty young guy who has shown that he can think on his feet -- or in his guard. You can't help but note that Nate has grown up at the Cesar Gracie gym with his older brother, Nick, who is well known to fight fans the world over. Like Nick, Nate is a serious ground guy who knows his way around the standup game. In the injury-shortened TUF 5 finale fight with Manny Gamburyan, he didn't get to show a full range of skills, but he played a smart game after Gamburyan came out with a blistering pace both on the ground and on the feet.
Junior Assuncao began his UFC career with a disappointing loss to Kurt Pellegrino at UFC 64. He was quick to rush Pellegrino and look for the guillotine, but Pellegrino was able to sneak out, mount Assuncao and throw some serious punches before ultimately sinking a rear naked choke. Assuncao redeemed himself with a strong showing at UFC 70, putting the hurt on a badly overmatched David Lee both on the feet and on the ground. In that match he showed more restraint at the opening bell, deciding to see what Lee had rather than rushing into anything. The game plan worked out, but Assuncao didn't show much of a defense, and when he did finally sink in the rear naked choke that put Lee away, he didn't even try to sink in his hooks.
Both of these guys can throw, and I expect they'll try their hand on the feet first, but once this fight goes to the ground it's going to evolve from there. The ground advantage goes to Diaz in this one, and I think that's what's going to make the difference. I don't suspect Assuncao will be able to compromise Diaz in a significant way on the ground, and it's only a matter of time until he makes a mistake and Nate capitalizes on it.
Diaz by submission.
Pete Sell vs. Nate Quarry
Rematch! Nate Quarry is coming back after a nearly two-year layoff after his devastating knockout loss in his title fight against then-middleweight champ Rich Franklin. He and Pete Sell first faced off at UFC Fight Night 1, when Quarry first got to show the world what he had to offer after his freak training injury knocked him out of TUF finale contention. In that fight, a well-timed left hook to the chin put Sell on the canvas and before either fighter had a chance to really settle things one way or the other, ref Cecil Peoples jumped on the pile and brought a quick and controversial end to the fight. After that, Quarry got stomped by Franklin and Sell went on to the TUF 4 cast, passing season crybaby Charles McCarthy via split decision before losing to ground specialist Travis Lutter in the semi-finals.
Nate has used this long layoff to get a spinal fusion, and he's gotten more intense coaching in BJJ, Muay Thai and boxing. Leading up to his fight with Rich Franklin in late 2005, Quarry showed himself as an incredibly calm, cerebral and respectful fighter. He dissected Lodune Sincaid and Shonie Carter with pinpoint punches and smart cage sense. He will be best served by letting the fight come to him, getting reacquainted with the UFC atmosphere and finding his rhythm. Even when he was badly rocked by Franklin, he got back to his feet carefully and purposefully. He doesn't panic.
Pete Sell hasn't been able to find his niche in the octagon. He's a Jiu-Jitsu guy under Matt Serra, yet he throws hard and likes to stand anyway. When he traded with Scott Smith he was the less crisp puncher, often ending up on the short end of the many exchanges on the feet, and yet he didn't try to hit the ground. He likes to stay in the pocket, and that's going to hurt him against a guy like Quarry. When Sell hit the ground against Thales Leites he was outclassed there. Granted, Leites has a far superior ground game to Nate Quarry, so it's not exactly apples to apples, but Sell just didn't have an answer to the methodical transitions Leites used to secure a very convincing decision win.
If this fight stays on the feet, it's to Quarry's benefit. He's the more tactical puncher, he isn't wild, and he's not likely to make many mistakes that Sell will be able to turn to his advantage. If the fight goes to the ground, even though Quarry can work there, the tide definitely turns in Sell's favor, where he should be able to work his Jiu-Jitsu to look for submissions or at least gain some serious points on the scorecards. Given that Sell didn't hit the ground with Scott Smith despite the clear advantage he would have there, I'm not convinced he'll shoot for the mat with Quarry. So I think this stays on its feet, where Quarry earns the first win of his comeback.
Edilberto de Oliverio vs. Luke Cummo
Luke Cummo, up until his knockout of the heavy-handed Josh Haynes, wasn't much of a finisher, but he's no quitter, either. He fights hard, he strikes hard and he's survived the onslaught on tremendous wrestlers in Joe Stevenson, Josh Koscheck, Jason Von Flue. De Oliverio is making the transition to the UFC after really making his mark in Brazil. He was far outmatched in his debut against Paul Taylor at UFC 70. Taylor was by far the most experienced fighter he had faced, and it was his debut to boot.
This time, De Oliverio is training with "Minitauro" Nogueira and Anderson Silva, which should raise his MMA game significantly. There's no question he owns the ground game in this fight, and Cummo will want to avoid letting the fight go there at all costs. Von Flue was the only one of Cummo's opponents who really had any significant submission game at the time they fought, and his fight against Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu master "Crocota" will be a real challenge for the Matt Serra student.
Cummo wants to do exactly what Paul Taylor did in his win over de Oliverio. He wants be the aggressor, throw kicks and punches, and avoid being taken down. If de Oliverio hasn't improved his standup and tries to stand with Cummo, he'll be headed for an 0-2 UFC record.
I give Cummo this fight.
Cole Miller vs. Leonard Garcia
I really hope there's time to show Leonard Garcia vs. Cole Miller. Miller was one of the better prospects on TUF 5, a BJJ fighter with a long reach who knows how to throw a punch. As Andy Wang found out, Miller can also connect with a pretty good head kick. Garcia is best known for showing tremendous heart in the war he had with Roger Huerta back at UFC 69, but he was able to show more of his skills against Allen Berube in the TUF 5 finale, submitting him late in the first round with a rear naked choke.
Both of these guys are well-trained: Miller at American Top Team, Garcia at Greg Jackson's camp in New Mexico. Miller may have an edge in the standup, especially with a five-inch reach advantage, but he isn't likely to knock out Garcia, who took tremendous punishment from the much bigger Huerta and still had a smile on his face. The ground game could go either way. In addition, each man has fought more than a dozen fights and each has lost twice -- all by decision. Neither of these two is going to give up in this fight, and because they're fairly evenly matched, this one should be explosive wherever it goes.
Tough to call, but I'll pick Garcia.
Gray Maynard vs. Joe Veres
Maynard and Veres are two well-decorated wrestlers, both NCAA All-Americans, but Maynard's credentials are of a higher level. Veres is training with Jorge Gurgel, while Maynard is part of Xtreme Couture. Neither guy has a ton of MMA experience, and with both being wrestlers this fight is likely to go to the ground, where Maynard should reign supreme.
Kuniyoshi Hironaka vs. Thiago Alvez
Kuniyoshi Hironaka is a judo and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt with very unorthodox submissions. He's coming off a decision win over Forrest Petz after a decision loss to Jon Fitch. He meets a powerful striker in Thiago Alvez, who has two victories after also losing to Jon Fitch after a severe ground and pound beating in the second that ended with a nice Fitch upkick and strikes from the top on a woozy Alvez. Fitch dominated Hironaka with sheer brute force, and Hironaka is likely to find himself on the losing end of the strength war here, as well. That said, while Alvez has some background in submissions, he's a striker first, and Hironaka has a huge advantage in ground technique.
Alvez will look to keep the fight on the feet as long as he can. Hironaka may be able to use his judo throws to get this fight to the ground and look for a submission, but he's won by decision more than anything else, and the longer he allows Thiago Alvez the opportunity to throw punches and kicks, the more likely it is he'll find himself in deep trouble. Hironaka may be too patient for his own good, and Alvez likes to push the pace. Both men are known to have excellent conditioning, so that shouldn't be a factor.
While it wouldn't surprise me if Hironaka pulled off a great submission, I'm going to say Thiago Alvez walks away with this one.
Jonathan Goulet vs. Dustin Hazelett
Jonathan Goulet is a UFC Fight Night staple. His two wins (over Jay Hieron and Luke Cummo) and two losses (to Duane Ludwig and Josh Koscheck) in the UFC have all been on Spike TV events, and here he comes to fight Dustin Hazelett, once again on cable. Goulet is a well-rounded fighter who comes in shape and is a threat on the feet or on the ground. He often was a training partner of George St. Pierre in Canada before GSP hooked up with Greg Jackson. For this fight, Goulet has had a camp with Kenny Florian's guys at Mark DellaGrotte's Sityodtong outfit outside Boston, in addition to his regular camp, which should help his Muay Thai. Goulet has a lot of talent and is well-rounded, but he's been inconsistent in the UFC. He does have wins against John Alessio, Tony Fryklund and Shonie Carter outside the UFC, so he's certainly faced his share of tough competition.
Dustin Hazelett took his UFC debut on short notice as a welterweight against a strong veteran in wrestler Tony DeSousa and quickly showed he's got a ground game when he locked DeSousa into a triangle choke for two minutes to open the fight. DeSousa got out and proceeded to work his game to secure a nasty kimura. Hazelett came back to show some very nice striking in a lightweight fight against Diego Saraiva, using his superior reach both in his boxing and to punch Saraiva in the face from outside guard. For this fight, Hazelett will sport a three-inch reach advantage over Goulet. Hazelett is a BJJ brown belt and showed a very flexible guard and excellent submission attempts in his fights against Saraiva at UFC 67 and Stevie Lynch at UFC 72. While his win over Saraiva was a well-earned decision, his fight at 170 pounds against Lynch didn't need to get past the first round. After he hurt Lynch, killer instinct took over and he swarmed, landing some nice punches before sinking in an anaconda choke.
Goulet has clearly fought the better opponents in his MMA career, and he's been a top contender in Canada for years and a promising fringe contender in the UFC as well. But again, he's inconsistent. Hazelett is a late replacement for the injured Mike Swick, and Goulet has said he hasn't even checked out what Hazelett has to offer and doesn't care to. This could be his downfall. If he's not prepared for the ground game Hazelett brings, he's going to find himself in a world of trouble.
For my money, Hazelett takes this fight.
Din Thomas vs. Kenny Florian
Two Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belts step into the octagon for the main event, both coming off impressive wins, Din Thomas overpowering the young striker Jeremy Stephens to secure an armbar and Kenny Florian mounting the larger Alvin Robinson to pound out a submission. Florian has been improving steadily since his decision loss to Sean Sherk for the lightweight belt. Thomas has really sent a message since his appearance on The Ultimate Fighter 4. Both guys are exciting fighters, and this should be a great main event matchup.
Thomas is the better puncher and boxer, and a fight on the feet favors him. However, Kenny Florian does train with guys like Golden Gloves winners Marcus Davis and Stephan Bonnar and Canadian slugger Patrick Cote at Sityodong outside Boston. So it's not like he doesn't see powerful strikers who are good boxers every day. His defense was a little shaky in his win against Robinson, but he more than made up for that on the ground even against a guy as well versed as Robinson.
Florian employs a smothering brand of Jiu-Jitsu. He likes to get on top of people, work for position and exploit opportunities. If Din Thomas uses the same open guard against Florian that he did against Clay Guida, this fight will be wrapped up before the end of the second round. Florian has a penchant from throwing cut-opening elbows, and if he can get the leverage from Din's open guard to really swing those, look out. I give the edge on the ground to Florian, with the acknowledgement that Thomas knows how to handle himself there and isn't likely to make a simple mistake for Kenny to take advantage of.
I'll say Florian comes away the victor.
After the steroid mess with Sean Sherk and Hermes Franca post-UFC 73, the lightweight division really is a wide-open one. B.J. Penn is the top contender for Sherk should he remain champ. Who fights Penn for a vacant title should Sherk lose his appeal to the California State Athletic Commission? The winner of this fight could put himself in the mix. According to MMAjunkie.com, rumors are Frankie Edgar will fight Spencer Fisher at UFC 78 in November, on the same card in which B.J. Penn will fight either Sherk or someone else. Roger Huerta and Joe Stevenson are two guys who could get the nod.
However, Penn and Thomas fought back in 2001 at UFC 32, where B.J. threw a fantastic knee to the head and sent Din down hard. If Thomas comes out and explodes on Kenny Florian, UFC matchmaker Joe Silva might consider Penn vs. Thomas an intriguing enough rematch.
Chris Leben vs. Terry Martin
Ever since Terry Martin slimmed down to the 185-pound division, he's looked fantastic. His convincing knockout wins over Jorge Rivera and Ivan Salaverry were impressive, hinting that he's a much bigger force at middleweight than he was in his mixed showing at light heavyweight.
Chris Leben is, well, Chris Leben. If someone wants to stand in front of him and throw leather, he's more than happy to oblige, even if it doesn't always work in his favor, and he's a crowd favorite for it. His toe-to-toe war with Patrick Cote is a blueprint for how a Chris Leben fight is fought: Swing for the fences, wild haymakers, last man standing wins. Leben won't put on a boxing clinic.
Unfortunately, the past year hasn't been kind to the Crippler. He's posted losses against now middleweight champ Anderson Silva, Jason MacDonald and Kaleb Starnes while only managing to chop down Jorge Santiago. But the Starnes fight was so tight, even Kaleb said he would have given it to Leben.
This fight is going to tell us two things. A) Just how serious a contender is Terry Martin at 185, and B) How has Chris Leben evolved in the past year. Leben has no shortage of guys to learn from at Team Quest, but he can be a stubborn guy. Martin vs. Leben has all the makings of a slugfest, but Leben won't be easy knockout prey. Even in his losses, he's shown an incredible chin, taking a serious crack to the jaw from Starnes in the second round and still coming forward.
Martin has a flair for the dramatic, both inside and outside the cage. He's an extremely intelligent guy, and a good fighter, but it's hard to decide whether his pre-fight talk dismissing Leben's ability is for real (he has a degree in psychology, after all). If Martin thinks he's going to run through Leben like he did Salaverry and Rivera, he's sadly mistaken. He's going to need to take this fight seriously or he's going to be staring at the ceiling wondering what happened.
It's a tough call, both guys have knockout power and the puncher's chance can screw the odds every time. Leben's had two tough losses, he sounds focused and ready, and his only knockout loss -- the most likely way Martin would win -- is to Anderson Silva, who came at him with crazy knee strikes and a mean Thai clinch. Terry Martin doesn't have that arsenal to bring to this party, and he's been beaten down by punches from big man Jason Lambert. It's a coin toss, but I'll give Leben the benefit of the doubt on this one.
Nate Diaz vs. Junior Assuncao
TUF 5 winner Nate Diaz gets his first chance to fight after winning the six-figure contract, facing off against fellow Jiu-Jitsu practitioner Junior Assuncao. Diaz is a crafty young guy who has shown that he can think on his feet -- or in his guard. You can't help but note that Nate has grown up at the Cesar Gracie gym with his older brother, Nick, who is well known to fight fans the world over. Like Nick, Nate is a serious ground guy who knows his way around the standup game. In the injury-shortened TUF 5 finale fight with Manny Gamburyan, he didn't get to show a full range of skills, but he played a smart game after Gamburyan came out with a blistering pace both on the ground and on the feet.
Junior Assuncao began his UFC career with a disappointing loss to Kurt Pellegrino at UFC 64. He was quick to rush Pellegrino and look for the guillotine, but Pellegrino was able to sneak out, mount Assuncao and throw some serious punches before ultimately sinking a rear naked choke. Assuncao redeemed himself with a strong showing at UFC 70, putting the hurt on a badly overmatched David Lee both on the feet and on the ground. In that match he showed more restraint at the opening bell, deciding to see what Lee had rather than rushing into anything. The game plan worked out, but Assuncao didn't show much of a defense, and when he did finally sink in the rear naked choke that put Lee away, he didn't even try to sink in his hooks.
Both of these guys can throw, and I expect they'll try their hand on the feet first, but once this fight goes to the ground it's going to evolve from there. The ground advantage goes to Diaz in this one, and I think that's what's going to make the difference. I don't suspect Assuncao will be able to compromise Diaz in a significant way on the ground, and it's only a matter of time until he makes a mistake and Nate capitalizes on it.
Diaz by submission.
Pete Sell vs. Nate Quarry
Rematch! Nate Quarry is coming back after a nearly two-year layoff after his devastating knockout loss in his title fight against then-middleweight champ Rich Franklin. He and Pete Sell first faced off at UFC Fight Night 1, when Quarry first got to show the world what he had to offer after his freak training injury knocked him out of TUF finale contention. In that fight, a well-timed left hook to the chin put Sell on the canvas and before either fighter had a chance to really settle things one way or the other, ref Cecil Peoples jumped on the pile and brought a quick and controversial end to the fight. After that, Quarry got stomped by Franklin and Sell went on to the TUF 4 cast, passing season crybaby Charles McCarthy via split decision before losing to ground specialist Travis Lutter in the semi-finals.
Nate has used this long layoff to get a spinal fusion, and he's gotten more intense coaching in BJJ, Muay Thai and boxing. Leading up to his fight with Rich Franklin in late 2005, Quarry showed himself as an incredibly calm, cerebral and respectful fighter. He dissected Lodune Sincaid and Shonie Carter with pinpoint punches and smart cage sense. He will be best served by letting the fight come to him, getting reacquainted with the UFC atmosphere and finding his rhythm. Even when he was badly rocked by Franklin, he got back to his feet carefully and purposefully. He doesn't panic.
Pete Sell hasn't been able to find his niche in the octagon. He's a Jiu-Jitsu guy under Matt Serra, yet he throws hard and likes to stand anyway. When he traded with Scott Smith he was the less crisp puncher, often ending up on the short end of the many exchanges on the feet, and yet he didn't try to hit the ground. He likes to stay in the pocket, and that's going to hurt him against a guy like Quarry. When Sell hit the ground against Thales Leites he was outclassed there. Granted, Leites has a far superior ground game to Nate Quarry, so it's not exactly apples to apples, but Sell just didn't have an answer to the methodical transitions Leites used to secure a very convincing decision win.
If this fight stays on the feet, it's to Quarry's benefit. He's the more tactical puncher, he isn't wild, and he's not likely to make many mistakes that Sell will be able to turn to his advantage. If the fight goes to the ground, even though Quarry can work there, the tide definitely turns in Sell's favor, where he should be able to work his Jiu-Jitsu to look for submissions or at least gain some serious points on the scorecards. Given that Sell didn't hit the ground with Scott Smith despite the clear advantage he would have there, I'm not convinced he'll shoot for the mat with Quarry. So I think this stays on its feet, where Quarry earns the first win of his comeback.
Edilberto de Oliverio vs. Luke Cummo
Luke Cummo, up until his knockout of the heavy-handed Josh Haynes, wasn't much of a finisher, but he's no quitter, either. He fights hard, he strikes hard and he's survived the onslaught on tremendous wrestlers in Joe Stevenson, Josh Koscheck, Jason Von Flue. De Oliverio is making the transition to the UFC after really making his mark in Brazil. He was far outmatched in his debut against Paul Taylor at UFC 70. Taylor was by far the most experienced fighter he had faced, and it was his debut to boot.
This time, De Oliverio is training with "Minitauro" Nogueira and Anderson Silva, which should raise his MMA game significantly. There's no question he owns the ground game in this fight, and Cummo will want to avoid letting the fight go there at all costs. Von Flue was the only one of Cummo's opponents who really had any significant submission game at the time they fought, and his fight against Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu master "Crocota" will be a real challenge for the Matt Serra student.
Cummo wants to do exactly what Paul Taylor did in his win over de Oliverio. He wants be the aggressor, throw kicks and punches, and avoid being taken down. If de Oliverio hasn't improved his standup and tries to stand with Cummo, he'll be headed for an 0-2 UFC record.
I give Cummo this fight.
Cole Miller vs. Leonard Garcia
I really hope there's time to show Leonard Garcia vs. Cole Miller. Miller was one of the better prospects on TUF 5, a BJJ fighter with a long reach who knows how to throw a punch. As Andy Wang found out, Miller can also connect with a pretty good head kick. Garcia is best known for showing tremendous heart in the war he had with Roger Huerta back at UFC 69, but he was able to show more of his skills against Allen Berube in the TUF 5 finale, submitting him late in the first round with a rear naked choke.
Both of these guys are well-trained: Miller at American Top Team, Garcia at Greg Jackson's camp in New Mexico. Miller may have an edge in the standup, especially with a five-inch reach advantage, but he isn't likely to knock out Garcia, who took tremendous punishment from the much bigger Huerta and still had a smile on his face. The ground game could go either way. In addition, each man has fought more than a dozen fights and each has lost twice -- all by decision. Neither of these two is going to give up in this fight, and because they're fairly evenly matched, this one should be explosive wherever it goes.
Tough to call, but I'll pick Garcia.
Gray Maynard vs. Joe Veres
Maynard and Veres are two well-decorated wrestlers, both NCAA All-Americans, but Maynard's credentials are of a higher level. Veres is training with Jorge Gurgel, while Maynard is part of Xtreme Couture. Neither guy has a ton of MMA experience, and with both being wrestlers this fight is likely to go to the ground, where Maynard should reign supreme.
Kuniyoshi Hironaka vs. Thiago Alvez
Kuniyoshi Hironaka is a judo and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt with very unorthodox submissions. He's coming off a decision win over Forrest Petz after a decision loss to Jon Fitch. He meets a powerful striker in Thiago Alvez, who has two victories after also losing to Jon Fitch after a severe ground and pound beating in the second that ended with a nice Fitch upkick and strikes from the top on a woozy Alvez. Fitch dominated Hironaka with sheer brute force, and Hironaka is likely to find himself on the losing end of the strength war here, as well. That said, while Alvez has some background in submissions, he's a striker first, and Hironaka has a huge advantage in ground technique.
Alvez will look to keep the fight on the feet as long as he can. Hironaka may be able to use his judo throws to get this fight to the ground and look for a submission, but he's won by decision more than anything else, and the longer he allows Thiago Alvez the opportunity to throw punches and kicks, the more likely it is he'll find himself in deep trouble. Hironaka may be too patient for his own good, and Alvez likes to push the pace. Both men are known to have excellent conditioning, so that shouldn't be a factor.
While it wouldn't surprise me if Hironaka pulled off a great submission, I'm going to say Thiago Alvez walks away with this one.
Jonathan Goulet vs. Dustin Hazelett
Jonathan Goulet is a UFC Fight Night staple. His two wins (over Jay Hieron and Luke Cummo) and two losses (to Duane Ludwig and Josh Koscheck) in the UFC have all been on Spike TV events, and here he comes to fight Dustin Hazelett, once again on cable. Goulet is a well-rounded fighter who comes in shape and is a threat on the feet or on the ground. He often was a training partner of George St. Pierre in Canada before GSP hooked up with Greg Jackson. For this fight, Goulet has had a camp with Kenny Florian's guys at Mark DellaGrotte's Sityodtong outfit outside Boston, in addition to his regular camp, which should help his Muay Thai. Goulet has a lot of talent and is well-rounded, but he's been inconsistent in the UFC. He does have wins against John Alessio, Tony Fryklund and Shonie Carter outside the UFC, so he's certainly faced his share of tough competition.
Dustin Hazelett took his UFC debut on short notice as a welterweight against a strong veteran in wrestler Tony DeSousa and quickly showed he's got a ground game when he locked DeSousa into a triangle choke for two minutes to open the fight. DeSousa got out and proceeded to work his game to secure a nasty kimura. Hazelett came back to show some very nice striking in a lightweight fight against Diego Saraiva, using his superior reach both in his boxing and to punch Saraiva in the face from outside guard. For this fight, Hazelett will sport a three-inch reach advantage over Goulet. Hazelett is a BJJ brown belt and showed a very flexible guard and excellent submission attempts in his fights against Saraiva at UFC 67 and Stevie Lynch at UFC 72. While his win over Saraiva was a well-earned decision, his fight at 170 pounds against Lynch didn't need to get past the first round. After he hurt Lynch, killer instinct took over and he swarmed, landing some nice punches before sinking in an anaconda choke.
Goulet has clearly fought the better opponents in his MMA career, and he's been a top contender in Canada for years and a promising fringe contender in the UFC as well. But again, he's inconsistent. Hazelett is a late replacement for the injured Mike Swick, and Goulet has said he hasn't even checked out what Hazelett has to offer and doesn't care to. This could be his downfall. If he's not prepared for the ground game Hazelett brings, he's going to find himself in a world of trouble.
For my money, Hazelett takes this fight.
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