Scott's UFC 75 picks
I'm going to Vegas, but unfortunately I won't be in town for any UFC action. But I'm not running from Gerald's fierce battle stare. This UFC will go down as a historic moment, a unification bout between PRIDE and UFC. Holy smokes. So with that, let's kick it off.
Quinton Jackson vs. Dan Henderson
I have to admit here, these guys are huge names in MMA mostly through their long, prosperous careers in PRIDE, which I've followed far less than UFC. But I know this, these are two very exciting guys who lay it all out there when they fight. They're primarily strikers, and they both know how to take a punch. With so much on the line, it's hard to say what will happen. Either man could rush in and try to quickly overwhelm the other, or they could give each other too much respect and get this fight off to a crawl. I expect it to stay mostly on the feet, and if that's the case, I think Henderson will come out the victor either due to strikes or in a decision. If, however, this goes to the ground, I'm going to say Rampage shows enough to either get a ground n' pound win or dominate enough to win the decision.
My pick: Henderson.
Matt Hamill vs. Michael Bisping
This is the TUF finale fight that could have been, and now it finally happens. Bisping might say there's not real bad blood, but c'mon, he took serious issue with everything Hamill did on the show, and I don't think he's forgotten about that afterward. He wants this fight bad. And he's the superior fighter. Hamill is an incredible wrestler, but Bisping isn't going to let it become a wrestling match. Bisping is out for blood, and Hamill hasn't faced a guy in the cage with the power of Bisping.
My pick: Bisping walks away with the win by fists in some fashion.
Mirko Cro Cop vs. Cheick Kongo
Cheick Kongo was on a tear in the UFC heavyweight division when it was starting to look a little thin. He beat Gilbert Aldana and Christian Wellisch quickly and decisively on the feet. Then came the fight with Carmello Marrero, who exposed the kickboxer's serious lack of ground experience. He lost a decision to Marrero, and Joe Rogan thought someone should kidnap him and force him to go to a wrestling camp. He came back to beat Assuerio Silva in a unanimous decision at UFC 70, but his ground game still isn't there. Mirko Cro Cop is coming off the Kick Heard Round The World loss, and you can bet he's in a vengeful mood. Or at least as vengeful as Cro Cop can look. But trust me, he's vengeful. Cro Cop is of course known for that sick head kick, but he's got a huge advantage on the ground (just look at his fight against Wanderlei Silva and imagine what he would do to Kongo). Will Cro Cop play into a kickboxing game plan, which would be for the better for Kongo? Kongo doesn't necessarily have an advantage on the feet, he's just not at such a stark disadvantage. I see Cro Cop staying on the feet, but overwhelming the Frenchman.
My pick: Cro Cop
Marcus Davis vs. Paul Taylor
Marcus Davis is a tremendous boxer who actually has developed a pretty good submission game. Paul Taylor made his UFC debut against oddball Edilberto "Crocota" de Oliveira, a submission guy, and showed that he's a measured boxer with quick hands, good kickboxing and unpredictable striking. He didn't show a lot of ground game in that fight, but his advantage was on the feet, so that's understandable. He does have submissions by kimura, guillotine and armbar though, so he can hang on the ground. Davis has the unfortunate problem of bleeding easily. He was cut against Melvin Guillard at the TUF 2 finale and lost by doctor stoppage (when Melvin was training with Josh Burkman out of SLC, by the way). He was cut again against Pete Spratt at UFC 69 but pulled off a leg lock and got the submission win. Then he was cut again against Forrest Petz (who is rumored to be fighting Burkman soon) and really turned it on to get a guillotine locked in before the ref could step in to evaluate the cut. This tendency to bleed could be trouble for Davis, because Taylor has the speed and the hands to make Davis pay. These guys both have great hands, and this could be a slugfest.
My pick: Paul Taylor
Houston Alexander Vs. Alessio Sakara
Again, two guys with good hands who are aggressive. Houston Alexander's UFC debut was the stunning destruction of Keith Jardine. He didn't have to show much there, but Jardine is no joke, and Alexander's for real. Most of his fights end in the first round. Sakara started off his UFC career in fine fashion, getting kicked in the groin and taking a no contest. He then fought to a decision win against Elvis Sinosic at UFC 57 four months later. Sakara got a rude awakening against submission specialist Dean Lister at UFC 60, being outclassed on the ground and falling into a triangle. He was doing better against banger Drew McFedries at UFC 65. He showed a good chin and recovered well against a guy with knockout power. At his best, he was an accurate, methodical puncher, and yet for no good reason he fell to the ground into guard and McFedries beat the tar out of him. At UFC 70 he and fellow striker Victor Valimaki went toe-to-toe, and Sakara dominated, proving that he's got what it takes to stand and trade at this level. But will it be enough if Alexander sticks to his MO?
My pick: Houston Alexander
Gleison Tibau Vs. Terry Etim
Etim showed good game at UFC 70 with a first round submission victory over Matthew Grice. He's undefeated, with nine of his 10 wins by submission. Tibau tore through the lower ranks before coming to the UFC and then was overpowered by Nick Diaz in his debut at UFC 65. Diaz has great jiu-jitsu, but Tibau was able to avoid trouble on the ground early in the fight. He just seemed to get tired and eventually lost to ref stoppage due to strikes in the second round. He showed a better ground game against Jason Dent at UFC 68, working for a long time on an arm triangle that Dent eventually escaped, but it showed that Tibau can work from that position. He won the decision there and then was succesful with the arm triangle against Jeff Cox at the UFC Fight Night in June. Both guys make their living on the ground, and look for this one to go there fairly quickly.
My pick. Terry Etim
Tomasz Drwal Vs. Thiago Silva
Tomasz "Travolta" Drwal has the most appropriate nickname ever in the history of ever. If you don't know why, you'll see. As for his fighting, when this guy hits people, they know it. He's got at least eight wins by strikes in the first round. Thiago Silva's UFC debut against James Irvin was cut way short when Irvin blew out his knee. Until that point, Silva didn't look too sharp, but he's also got a record of hitting people hard. This could be the fight of the night, with either guy having his hand raised.
My pick: I just want to hear Bruce Buffer say "Travolta" with a straight face.
Naoyuki Kotani Vs. Dennis Siver
You win some, you lose some. Dennis Siver has won his fair share of submission victories (6), and all four of his losses have come by submission, including a nice armbar by Jess Liaudin in his UFC debut. Naoyuki Kotani, on the other hand, has 13 submission victories and hasn't lost in that manner in nearly 30 fights.
My pick: Kotani
Anthony Torres Vs. Jess Liaudin
It's kind of scary how many of the guys on this card have fought each other. As mentioned before, Liaudin beat Dennis Siver in his last outing, but he's also lost to Paul Taylor by decision. Torres is a TUF 2 alum stepping in as a replacement in this bout. Torres is undefeated in five pro fights, with two knockouts and two submissions. Liaudin is the journeyman with an 11-8 record, most wins by submission, most losses by knockout. Torres hasn't been in the cage in a year, and I expect Liaudin to use his experience and activity to pull this one out.
My pick: Jess Liaudin
Quinton Jackson vs. Dan Henderson
I have to admit here, these guys are huge names in MMA mostly through their long, prosperous careers in PRIDE, which I've followed far less than UFC. But I know this, these are two very exciting guys who lay it all out there when they fight. They're primarily strikers, and they both know how to take a punch. With so much on the line, it's hard to say what will happen. Either man could rush in and try to quickly overwhelm the other, or they could give each other too much respect and get this fight off to a crawl. I expect it to stay mostly on the feet, and if that's the case, I think Henderson will come out the victor either due to strikes or in a decision. If, however, this goes to the ground, I'm going to say Rampage shows enough to either get a ground n' pound win or dominate enough to win the decision.
My pick: Henderson.
Matt Hamill vs. Michael Bisping
This is the TUF finale fight that could have been, and now it finally happens. Bisping might say there's not real bad blood, but c'mon, he took serious issue with everything Hamill did on the show, and I don't think he's forgotten about that afterward. He wants this fight bad. And he's the superior fighter. Hamill is an incredible wrestler, but Bisping isn't going to let it become a wrestling match. Bisping is out for blood, and Hamill hasn't faced a guy in the cage with the power of Bisping.
My pick: Bisping walks away with the win by fists in some fashion.
Mirko Cro Cop vs. Cheick Kongo
Cheick Kongo was on a tear in the UFC heavyweight division when it was starting to look a little thin. He beat Gilbert Aldana and Christian Wellisch quickly and decisively on the feet. Then came the fight with Carmello Marrero, who exposed the kickboxer's serious lack of ground experience. He lost a decision to Marrero, and Joe Rogan thought someone should kidnap him and force him to go to a wrestling camp. He came back to beat Assuerio Silva in a unanimous decision at UFC 70, but his ground game still isn't there. Mirko Cro Cop is coming off the Kick Heard Round The World loss, and you can bet he's in a vengeful mood. Or at least as vengeful as Cro Cop can look. But trust me, he's vengeful. Cro Cop is of course known for that sick head kick, but he's got a huge advantage on the ground (just look at his fight against Wanderlei Silva and imagine what he would do to Kongo). Will Cro Cop play into a kickboxing game plan, which would be for the better for Kongo? Kongo doesn't necessarily have an advantage on the feet, he's just not at such a stark disadvantage. I see Cro Cop staying on the feet, but overwhelming the Frenchman.
My pick: Cro Cop
Marcus Davis vs. Paul Taylor
Marcus Davis is a tremendous boxer who actually has developed a pretty good submission game. Paul Taylor made his UFC debut against oddball Edilberto "Crocota" de Oliveira, a submission guy, and showed that he's a measured boxer with quick hands, good kickboxing and unpredictable striking. He didn't show a lot of ground game in that fight, but his advantage was on the feet, so that's understandable. He does have submissions by kimura, guillotine and armbar though, so he can hang on the ground. Davis has the unfortunate problem of bleeding easily. He was cut against Melvin Guillard at the TUF 2 finale and lost by doctor stoppage (when Melvin was training with Josh Burkman out of SLC, by the way). He was cut again against Pete Spratt at UFC 69 but pulled off a leg lock and got the submission win. Then he was cut again against Forrest Petz (who is rumored to be fighting Burkman soon) and really turned it on to get a guillotine locked in before the ref could step in to evaluate the cut. This tendency to bleed could be trouble for Davis, because Taylor has the speed and the hands to make Davis pay. These guys both have great hands, and this could be a slugfest.
My pick: Paul Taylor
Houston Alexander Vs. Alessio Sakara
Again, two guys with good hands who are aggressive. Houston Alexander's UFC debut was the stunning destruction of Keith Jardine. He didn't have to show much there, but Jardine is no joke, and Alexander's for real. Most of his fights end in the first round. Sakara started off his UFC career in fine fashion, getting kicked in the groin and taking a no contest. He then fought to a decision win against Elvis Sinosic at UFC 57 four months later. Sakara got a rude awakening against submission specialist Dean Lister at UFC 60, being outclassed on the ground and falling into a triangle. He was doing better against banger Drew McFedries at UFC 65. He showed a good chin and recovered well against a guy with knockout power. At his best, he was an accurate, methodical puncher, and yet for no good reason he fell to the ground into guard and McFedries beat the tar out of him. At UFC 70 he and fellow striker Victor Valimaki went toe-to-toe, and Sakara dominated, proving that he's got what it takes to stand and trade at this level. But will it be enough if Alexander sticks to his MO?
My pick: Houston Alexander
Gleison Tibau Vs. Terry Etim
Etim showed good game at UFC 70 with a first round submission victory over Matthew Grice. He's undefeated, with nine of his 10 wins by submission. Tibau tore through the lower ranks before coming to the UFC and then was overpowered by Nick Diaz in his debut at UFC 65. Diaz has great jiu-jitsu, but Tibau was able to avoid trouble on the ground early in the fight. He just seemed to get tired and eventually lost to ref stoppage due to strikes in the second round. He showed a better ground game against Jason Dent at UFC 68, working for a long time on an arm triangle that Dent eventually escaped, but it showed that Tibau can work from that position. He won the decision there and then was succesful with the arm triangle against Jeff Cox at the UFC Fight Night in June. Both guys make their living on the ground, and look for this one to go there fairly quickly.
My pick. Terry Etim
Tomasz Drwal Vs. Thiago Silva
Tomasz "Travolta" Drwal has the most appropriate nickname ever in the history of ever. If you don't know why, you'll see. As for his fighting, when this guy hits people, they know it. He's got at least eight wins by strikes in the first round. Thiago Silva's UFC debut against James Irvin was cut way short when Irvin blew out his knee. Until that point, Silva didn't look too sharp, but he's also got a record of hitting people hard. This could be the fight of the night, with either guy having his hand raised.
My pick: I just want to hear Bruce Buffer say "Travolta" with a straight face.
Naoyuki Kotani Vs. Dennis Siver
You win some, you lose some. Dennis Siver has won his fair share of submission victories (6), and all four of his losses have come by submission, including a nice armbar by Jess Liaudin in his UFC debut. Naoyuki Kotani, on the other hand, has 13 submission victories and hasn't lost in that manner in nearly 30 fights.
My pick: Kotani
Anthony Torres Vs. Jess Liaudin
It's kind of scary how many of the guys on this card have fought each other. As mentioned before, Liaudin beat Dennis Siver in his last outing, but he's also lost to Paul Taylor by decision. Torres is a TUF 2 alum stepping in as a replacement in this bout. Torres is undefeated in five pro fights, with two knockouts and two submissions. Liaudin is the journeyman with an 11-8 record, most wins by submission, most losses by knockout. Torres hasn't been in the cage in a year, and I expect Liaudin to use his experience and activity to pull this one out.
My pick: Jess Liaudin
1:22 AM
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1 Comments:
Come on Scott you can do better than that. Your breakdown on Hendo vs. Rampage sounded like you had never even heard of Henderson. You act as though a two time Olympic wrestler is doomed if he hits the mat with rampage. You also act like Henderson's stand up is golden when in reality he has an arsenal of one punch. That punch is deadly but I don't see him making five rounds out of standing and trying to throw it. This fight will hit the ground and Hollywood will be the one taking it there.
I know you predicted Henderson to win but the explanation seemed like the opposite of reality in my opinion.
Other than that you did okay but I'd like to see breakdowns based on experience and knowledge of the competitors rather than fight finder stats.
I think Gerald's going to edge you out this week on the picks. But there are a lot of too close to calls this week.
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