Route to Playoffs Hardly an Easy One
Technically, Real Salt Lake remains alive in the Major League Soccer playoff hunt — even after its 1-0 loss at Toronto FC today.
But man, does it need a lot of help.
Stuck in 12th place overall with 37 points, RSL first must defeat rival Colorado in the regular-season finale at Rio Tinto Stadium next weekend. Anything less, and it's all over.
But even if RSL does earn three points to pull into a tie with the Rapids on 40 points, it will reach the postseason again only by virtue of a long-shot series of other results.
The simplest way, at that point, would be to have Toronto, New England, FC Dallas and DC United — all tied with 39 points — all lose their final games.
That seems like a lot to ask, even though all four will be on the road. Toronto plays at last-place New York, for example, while DC United plays at Kansas City. The other games feature FC Dallas at Seattle — the Sounders clinched a playoff spot tonight — and New England at league-leading defending champion Columbus.
If two or more of those four teams wins, RSL is out.
If three of those teams lose and the other wins, however, that victorious team will secure the seventh playoff spot and force a tiebreaker between RSL and Colorado for the final position. That would come down to overall season goal differential, since the teams would have split their three regular-season games with a win, loss and draw.
In that case, RSL could win only if it beats the Rapids by two goals or more in the finale, since Colorado is plus-7 in goal differential and RSL is only plus-5.
It gets even more complicated if some of those teams tied with 39 points earn draws next weekend, joining RSL and Colorado in a tie with 40 points. In multi-team ties, the tie-breaking procedure begins by comparing the average points per game earned by each team, in only its games against the other tied teams.
And that's just too messy to try to figure out, at the moment.
Suffice it to say, the clearest route for RSL into the playoffs at this point is for it to beat the Rapids and hope everybody else of consequence loses next weekend. A tall order, for sure.
But man, does it need a lot of help.
Stuck in 12th place overall with 37 points, RSL first must defeat rival Colorado in the regular-season finale at Rio Tinto Stadium next weekend. Anything less, and it's all over.
But even if RSL does earn three points to pull into a tie with the Rapids on 40 points, it will reach the postseason again only by virtue of a long-shot series of other results.
The simplest way, at that point, would be to have Toronto, New England, FC Dallas and DC United — all tied with 39 points — all lose their final games.
That seems like a lot to ask, even though all four will be on the road. Toronto plays at last-place New York, for example, while DC United plays at Kansas City. The other games feature FC Dallas at Seattle — the Sounders clinched a playoff spot tonight — and New England at league-leading defending champion Columbus.
If two or more of those four teams wins, RSL is out.
If three of those teams lose and the other wins, however, that victorious team will secure the seventh playoff spot and force a tiebreaker between RSL and Colorado for the final position. That would come down to overall season goal differential, since the teams would have split their three regular-season games with a win, loss and draw.
In that case, RSL could win only if it beats the Rapids by two goals or more in the finale, since Colorado is plus-7 in goal differential and RSL is only plus-5.
It gets even more complicated if some of those teams tied with 39 points earn draws next weekend, joining RSL and Colorado in a tie with 40 points. In multi-team ties, the tie-breaking procedure begins by comparing the average points per game earned by each team, in only its games against the other tied teams.
And that's just too messy to try to figure out, at the moment.
Suffice it to say, the clearest route for RSL into the playoffs at this point is for it to beat the Rapids and hope everybody else of consequence loses next weekend. A tall order, for sure.
posted by www.sltrib.com @ 9:02 PM |
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