The Annual MWC Guessing Game
Talk about a crapshoot.
Just finished trying to predict the order of finish in the Mountain West Conference, for the league's annual preseason poll. And let me say, what a nightmare! Five new coaches, tons of high-profile departures, and as usual, not a clue about how any of the potential newcomers around the league are really going to fit in when the ball goes in the air.
If the exercise taught me anything, it's that the upcoming season should be pretty intriguing -- since there's so little to depend upon.
Anyway, just so you know, I picked the Utes to finish third behind UNLV and San Diego State. Yes, both the Rebels and Aztecs lose some important players -- UNLV's Kevin Kruger and Wendell White and San Diego State's Brandon Heath, among them -- while the Utes have practically everybody back.
But the Utes were not much good to begin with, and are still adjusting to new coach Jim Boylen.
Clearly, picking them third shows that I think Boylen can do a lot with his group right out of the chute, but the other teams are coming off some pretty strong seasons and have the benefit of continuity in their coaching staffs. That makes a huge difference, I think, and my perception of Boylen's capabilities -- despite having never been a head coach -- is a big reason that I gave the Utes the nod over Wyoming and New Mexico, two other teams with new coaches and some decent talent returning.
Must admit, though, I am particularly intrigued by the Cowboys.
In junior Brandon Ewing and senior Brad Jones, they have the two best guards in the league coming back, and new coach Heath Schroyer is the kind of coach who's going to demand that the Cowboys improve their last-in-the-league defense. If I was allowed to pick a dark horse title contender, they would be it.
Alas, that was not part of the preseason poll.
The Brigham Young Cougars, I nearly voted ahead of the Utes, on the strength of returning starters Trent Plaisted and Lee Cummard and the coaching factor with Dave Rose entering his third year. But the Cougs lost almost all of their best players from last season, and I don’t know if they have enough left to seriously contend again. They will be in the mix near the top of the standings, though, which is why I picked them fourth.
After that, I chose New Mexico sixth -- would have been higher, if the good raw talent surrounding heralded new coach Steve Alford wasn’t comprised of knuckleheads like J.R. Giddens -- Air Force seventh, TCU eighth and Colorado State ninth.
Why?
The Falcons lost almost everybody, including their coach -- though the new one (Jeff Reynolds) was the top assistant to the old one (Jeff Bzdelik). TCU still has the same coach and most of the players who led them to a 13-17 season last year, and Colorado State has only two returning players after a disastrous offseason following the hiring of unknown coach Tim Miles.
For your record-keeping, I also put Utah's Luke Nevill on the preseason all-conference team (a senseless endeavor, if ever there was one), along with UNLV's Wink Adams, Wyoming's Brandon Ewing, BYU's Trent Plaisted and San Diego State's Lorrenzo Wade.
But I'm curious ... how would you predict the order of finish this season?
Just finished trying to predict the order of finish in the Mountain West Conference, for the league's annual preseason poll. And let me say, what a nightmare! Five new coaches, tons of high-profile departures, and as usual, not a clue about how any of the potential newcomers around the league are really going to fit in when the ball goes in the air.
If the exercise taught me anything, it's that the upcoming season should be pretty intriguing -- since there's so little to depend upon.
Anyway, just so you know, I picked the Utes to finish third behind UNLV and San Diego State. Yes, both the Rebels and Aztecs lose some important players -- UNLV's Kevin Kruger and Wendell White and San Diego State's Brandon Heath, among them -- while the Utes have practically everybody back.
But the Utes were not much good to begin with, and are still adjusting to new coach Jim Boylen.
Clearly, picking them third shows that I think Boylen can do a lot with his group right out of the chute, but the other teams are coming off some pretty strong seasons and have the benefit of continuity in their coaching staffs. That makes a huge difference, I think, and my perception of Boylen's capabilities -- despite having never been a head coach -- is a big reason that I gave the Utes the nod over Wyoming and New Mexico, two other teams with new coaches and some decent talent returning.
Must admit, though, I am particularly intrigued by the Cowboys.
In junior Brandon Ewing and senior Brad Jones, they have the two best guards in the league coming back, and new coach Heath Schroyer is the kind of coach who's going to demand that the Cowboys improve their last-in-the-league defense. If I was allowed to pick a dark horse title contender, they would be it.
Alas, that was not part of the preseason poll.
The Brigham Young Cougars, I nearly voted ahead of the Utes, on the strength of returning starters Trent Plaisted and Lee Cummard and the coaching factor with Dave Rose entering his third year. But the Cougs lost almost all of their best players from last season, and I don’t know if they have enough left to seriously contend again. They will be in the mix near the top of the standings, though, which is why I picked them fourth.
After that, I chose New Mexico sixth -- would have been higher, if the good raw talent surrounding heralded new coach Steve Alford wasn’t comprised of knuckleheads like J.R. Giddens -- Air Force seventh, TCU eighth and Colorado State ninth.
Why?
The Falcons lost almost everybody, including their coach -- though the new one (Jeff Reynolds) was the top assistant to the old one (Jeff Bzdelik). TCU still has the same coach and most of the players who led them to a 13-17 season last year, and Colorado State has only two returning players after a disastrous offseason following the hiring of unknown coach Tim Miles.
For your record-keeping, I also put Utah's Luke Nevill on the preseason all-conference team (a senseless endeavor, if ever there was one), along with UNLV's Wink Adams, Wyoming's Brandon Ewing, BYU's Trent Plaisted and San Diego State's Lorrenzo Wade.
But I'm curious ... how would you predict the order of finish this season?
posted by www.sltrib.com @ 9:18 AM |
6 Comments:
1. Wyoming
2. BYU
3. New Mexico
4. UNLV
5. Utah
6. San Diego State
7. TCU
8. Air Force
9. Colorado State
Utah over BYU? LOL!
Want a donut Homer?
I guess I can't put too much stock in your opinion, given that you can't even get Lee Cummard's name right. As a Utah fan even I know that much about them.
Oops! I certainly did misspell Lee Cummard's name -- I've corrected it now -- so thanks for pointing that out, however snottily you managed it. As for my "credibility," such as it is, I still believe that there is so much uncertainty with new coaches and the dearth of returning players that anything can happen among the top six teams. (I feel pretty good that TCU, Air Force and Colorado State will occupy the bottom three spots.) Very little would surprise me in that top bunch, and I could envision just about any of them finishing in just about any of the top six positions.
Mike
I agree with you that its a hard conference to pick. Just figured you ought to get the names right before BYU fans start labeling you with that anti-BYU bias that they claim is everywhere.
all i know is byu isnt goin to be that good this year thats a fact cuz they lost a lot of tallent, all they got is plaisted or whatever his names is...cummard a twig and will break in half at least once this season and there fire crotch shooter is gone so not much for them, i think bryant is probably one of the best guards in the league and nevill can play like he isnt afraid i think utah will be right up there for the title!
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