Crunching the Numbers on the Free-Throw Disparity
Almost every time coach Jim Boylen has complained that free-throw differential has been the difference for the Utes during their four-game losing streak, he has noted that the Utes at the same time have taken and made more shots from the field than their opponents during that span.
To which I've always thought ... well, duh.
When teams draw fouls while taking shots, the shots are not counted as field goals attempted, so it stands to reason that teams that earn more foul shots will be credited with fewer field-goal attempts on the stat sheet. Without crunching the numbers, then, I imagined that the two elements probably canceled each other out, more or less, making Boylen look a little up-in-the-night in his analysis.
So I figured I probably ought to crunch the numbers.
If you're willing to agree with Boylen that opposing teams are getting too many free throws, as opposed to the Utes not getting enough -- c'mon, just work with me here -- it's easy to see how trading free throws for field-goal attempts would work to the Utes' advantage, if perhaps only slightly.
Let's say, for argument's sake, that opposing teams shot only as many free throws as the Utes during the past four games.
That would be 43 fewer than they actually have, representing 32 points -- that's eight per game -- based on the 74 percent accuracy rate at which opponents are hitting their free throws in that span.
Of course, opponents would have had to do something else with the possessions that otherwise have ended in those free throws.
Considering that a trip to the line usually includes two foul shots, the 43 free throws probably represents about 21 or 22 possessions -- between three and four of which would be wasted by turnovers, again based on the average rate during the last four games.
So that leaves about 18 possessions on which opponents would have attempted a shot rather than commit a turnover or draw a foul for free throws. Presuming the Utes could limit the success rate of those shots to the same 42.9 percent that they're allowing overall during their losing streak (and allow the same percentage of three-pointers), those 18 shots would turn into about 18 points, or about 4.5 per game.
So rather than scoring about eight points from the free-throw line, opponents would have scored about 4.5 from the field -- a net difference of about 3.5 points per game in favor of the Utes, during a stretch in which they have lost by eight, eight, one and eight.
Obviously, then, the extra points wouldn't have helped the bottom line for the Utes enough in most cases. But it's also true that having a couple points more on the board at certain times during a close battle can drastically alter the strategy and tenor of a game. What if the Utes had been tied or actually ahead in the final 15 seconds at home against New Mexico, for example, instead of down by three?
Potentially, it changes everything.
And in a business where the thinnest of margins can make the difference between winning 20 games and having a losing record, that's significant.
Of course, I'm inclined to believe that the larger problem is that the Utes don't earn as many free throws as they should -- they're still shooting fewer than anybody in the league except injury-plagued and short-handed Colorado State -- and Boylen acknowledged that the Utes have had problems "finishing" plays by either drawing fouls or actually making baskets when they drive to the basket.
Yet Boylen maintains that the Utes have just as big a problem with not being quick enough and strong enough to keep opponents from drawing fouls and getting to the line -- especially down the stretch, in what he calls the "fourth quarter."
In all, it's a two-headed problem.
"Teams are getting to the free-throw line on us because of one-on-one defense, speed and quickness," Boylen said. "I guess that's what I'm trying to say. We need to do a better job of handling speed and quickness, and driving at the end of the clock and driving at the end of the game."
And with that, I can certainly agree.
To which I've always thought ... well, duh.
When teams draw fouls while taking shots, the shots are not counted as field goals attempted, so it stands to reason that teams that earn more foul shots will be credited with fewer field-goal attempts on the stat sheet. Without crunching the numbers, then, I imagined that the two elements probably canceled each other out, more or less, making Boylen look a little up-in-the-night in his analysis.
So I figured I probably ought to crunch the numbers.
If you're willing to agree with Boylen that opposing teams are getting too many free throws, as opposed to the Utes not getting enough -- c'mon, just work with me here -- it's easy to see how trading free throws for field-goal attempts would work to the Utes' advantage, if perhaps only slightly.
Let's say, for argument's sake, that opposing teams shot only as many free throws as the Utes during the past four games.
That would be 43 fewer than they actually have, representing 32 points -- that's eight per game -- based on the 74 percent accuracy rate at which opponents are hitting their free throws in that span.
Of course, opponents would have had to do something else with the possessions that otherwise have ended in those free throws.
Considering that a trip to the line usually includes two foul shots, the 43 free throws probably represents about 21 or 22 possessions -- between three and four of which would be wasted by turnovers, again based on the average rate during the last four games.
So that leaves about 18 possessions on which opponents would have attempted a shot rather than commit a turnover or draw a foul for free throws. Presuming the Utes could limit the success rate of those shots to the same 42.9 percent that they're allowing overall during their losing streak (and allow the same percentage of three-pointers), those 18 shots would turn into about 18 points, or about 4.5 per game.
So rather than scoring about eight points from the free-throw line, opponents would have scored about 4.5 from the field -- a net difference of about 3.5 points per game in favor of the Utes, during a stretch in which they have lost by eight, eight, one and eight.
Obviously, then, the extra points wouldn't have helped the bottom line for the Utes enough in most cases. But it's also true that having a couple points more on the board at certain times during a close battle can drastically alter the strategy and tenor of a game. What if the Utes had been tied or actually ahead in the final 15 seconds at home against New Mexico, for example, instead of down by three?
Potentially, it changes everything.
And in a business where the thinnest of margins can make the difference between winning 20 games and having a losing record, that's significant.
Of course, I'm inclined to believe that the larger problem is that the Utes don't earn as many free throws as they should -- they're still shooting fewer than anybody in the league except injury-plagued and short-handed Colorado State -- and Boylen acknowledged that the Utes have had problems "finishing" plays by either drawing fouls or actually making baskets when they drive to the basket.
Yet Boylen maintains that the Utes have just as big a problem with not being quick enough and strong enough to keep opponents from drawing fouls and getting to the line -- especially down the stretch, in what he calls the "fourth quarter."
In all, it's a two-headed problem.
"Teams are getting to the free-throw line on us because of one-on-one defense, speed and quickness," Boylen said. "I guess that's what I'm trying to say. We need to do a better job of handling speed and quickness, and driving at the end of the clock and driving at the end of the game."
And with that, I can certainly agree.

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