Deeper Threes Mean Mixed Results
Maybe now is a good time to examine how the deeper three-point line has affected the Utes this season.
You'll remember that before the season, there was all kinds of speculation about what effect the move would have -- from forcing shooting percentages down because the line would be farther away, to actually improving them because only the really good outside shooters would attempt threes, anymore.
Well, the Utes are somewhere in between.
Though the team is shooting almost the exact same number of three-pointers per game, it's making fewer -- 6.7 per game, compared to 7.3 per game last year -- and shooting 36.2 percent, after hitting 39.3 percent last season.
But two of its top outside shooters -- point guard Luka Drca and forward Shaun Green -- have improved from last season. While Drca shot only 30.8 percent from long range last season, he's hitting 43.9 percent now (and already shot and made more than he did all of last year), and Green has gone from 37.6 percent to 38.5 percent (although nowhere near the 51.2 percent of his sophomore season).
Others, however, have not been so fortunate.
Guard Lawrence Borha has slipped the most drastically, shooting 37 percent after hitting 43.8 percent last season, and shooting more than twice as many three-pointers per game (about 4.6, compared to about 2.2). Point guard Tyler Kepkay has slipped, too, making 36.4 percent after hitting 41.1 percent last season, though he hasn't increased his firing range quite as much, attempting about one more three-pointer per game (about 3.9, compared to about 2.9). And forward Carlon Brown? Well, we know what he has to work on during the offseason; he has made just 2 of 18 from long range this season, after hitting only 2 of 10 last year.
Of course, we always knew the Utes needed to try to replace the bombs that departed guard Johnnie Bryant hit for them last year.
And speaking of which, Bryant was back for a game at the Huntsman Center recently after playing professionally in Germany. He spent about four months there, he said, but did not plan to return after a midseason break. Instead, he's pursuing some business opportunities around town. Wonder how well he would have fared, with the new three-point line ...
You'll remember that before the season, there was all kinds of speculation about what effect the move would have -- from forcing shooting percentages down because the line would be farther away, to actually improving them because only the really good outside shooters would attempt threes, anymore.
Well, the Utes are somewhere in between.
Though the team is shooting almost the exact same number of three-pointers per game, it's making fewer -- 6.7 per game, compared to 7.3 per game last year -- and shooting 36.2 percent, after hitting 39.3 percent last season.
But two of its top outside shooters -- point guard Luka Drca and forward Shaun Green -- have improved from last season. While Drca shot only 30.8 percent from long range last season, he's hitting 43.9 percent now (and already shot and made more than he did all of last year), and Green has gone from 37.6 percent to 38.5 percent (although nowhere near the 51.2 percent of his sophomore season).
Others, however, have not been so fortunate.
Guard Lawrence Borha has slipped the most drastically, shooting 37 percent after hitting 43.8 percent last season, and shooting more than twice as many three-pointers per game (about 4.6, compared to about 2.2). Point guard Tyler Kepkay has slipped, too, making 36.4 percent after hitting 41.1 percent last season, though he hasn't increased his firing range quite as much, attempting about one more three-pointer per game (about 3.9, compared to about 2.9). And forward Carlon Brown? Well, we know what he has to work on during the offseason; he has made just 2 of 18 from long range this season, after hitting only 2 of 10 last year.
Of course, we always knew the Utes needed to try to replace the bombs that departed guard Johnnie Bryant hit for them last year.
And speaking of which, Bryant was back for a game at the Huntsman Center recently after playing professionally in Germany. He spent about four months there, he said, but did not plan to return after a midseason break. Instead, he's pursuing some business opportunities around town. Wonder how well he would have fared, with the new three-point line ...
posted by www.sltrib.com @ 8:07 AM |
4 Comments:
MCL -
A concept behind moving the lane is to free up the middle -- how has Nevill's world different because of the line. Would BYU have doubled more with the old line because they could have gotten back a split second faster?
Hope you are well.
Locke
Good point, David ...
And I've been shocked -- shocked! -- at how coaches such as BYU's Dave Rose, LSU's Trent Johnson and Wyoming's Heath Schroyer have tried to defend Nevill one-on-one. Nevill has KILLED single-coverage this season, surely in part because he has more room to operate because of the deeper line. But deeper line or no deeper line, if I'm a coach, I'd rather try to slow him down by doubling and risk getting hurt by an unspectacular (seventh in the league) three-point shooting team than allow a 7-foot-2 guy to hit 60 to 80 percent from inside six feet. Call me crazy ...
Thanks!
Michael
I've never understood this "free up the middle" argument.
If BYU was able to double more effectively last year because of the closer line, then why didn't Utah just tell Bryant or Green not to stand at the line, but to stand one step back from the line?
That is, there was nothing preventing last year's shooters from spotting up at this year's line, if doing so would have improved Neville's game.
True enough, but I suspect the Utes were worried less about Nevill's personal game, per se, than their own win/loss fortune. And given that their outside shooters could earn more points last year (i.e. 3 instead of 2) precisely BECAUSE they didn't have to make shots from so far away, they could fare OK overall even if Nevill was coping with more double-teams inside and not putting up tremendous numbers. Nevill wasn't as good against single-coverage as he has been this year, anyway.
Conversely, if Nevill hadn't improved in that area this year, the Utes might well be in a tougher spot because their guards would be having a harder time earning 3 points instead of 2 at the same time Nevill wasn't giving them enough inside to make up for it, the way he has been.
Just a thought ...
Thanks!
Michael
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